Premier League MD3: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

The Premier League takes its first break for international fixtures over the next two weeks.

But we had plenty of thrills and spills on matchday three.

Everton were 2-0 up in the 87th minute against Bournemouth on Saturday, only for Sean Dyche’s team to lose 3-2. Manchester City continued their perfect start, while Arsenal were held by Brighton, with Declan Rice sent off.

On Sunday, Newcastle United overcame Tottenham and Chelsea drew with Crystal Palace, while the headline fixture of the weekend saw Liverpool hammer Manchester United.

But which teams were lucky, and unlucky, on MD3?

87 – Everton were leading by 2+ goals until the 87th minute – the latest a team has ever been 2+ goals ahead in a game they’ve gone on to lose in Premier League history. Collapse. #EVEBOU pic.twitter.com/YDL1NcISCA

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) August 31, 2024

Lucky winners: Bournemouth

Andoni Iraola claimed Bournemouth were fortunate to come from behind and beat Everton 3-2 at Goodison Park. The Toffees were leading by 2+ goals until the 87th minute – the latest a team has ever been 2+ goals ahead in a game they’ve gone on to lose in Premier League history.

The full-time stats perhaps suggest a different version of events to Iraola’s take. Bournemouth finished with a higher expected goals (xG) than Everton (2.22 to 1.97) while having 17 shots to the hosts’ 18.

But up until late on, Everton had complete control. Indeed, as of the 80th minute, Sean Dyche’s team had mustered 18 shots, 11 more than Bournemouth.

And just to hammer that home, 1.79 of Bournemouth’s 2.22 xG came from the 81st minute onwards. While the Cherries deserve credit for a smash-and-grab, it is fair to say that Everton, who had five big chances but scored just two of them, will have been left scratching their heads as to how they capitulated.

Unlucky losers: Chelsea

Okay, so technically, Chelsea are not ‘losers’ – they drew 1-1 with Palace on Sunday.

But, based on the metrics, they were extremely unfortunate not to beat Oliver Glasner’s team.

Chelsea had 13 shots and accumulated 2.4 xG, which was the third highest across the weekend’s games, behind Brentford (2.78) and Man City (3.0), albeit a huge chunk of it came from Nicolas Jackson’s close-range finish.

Palace goalkeeper Dean Henderson was in fantastic form, making some excellent saves to deny Noni Madueke and Cole Palmer and coming away with a goals prevented figure of 1.76, and ultimately, Eberechi Eze’s stunner, which had an xG of just 0.06, was enough to claim a share of the spoils and frustrate Enzo Maresca.

Lucky winners: Newcastle United

Newcastle beat Spurs 2-1 at St James’ Park, and Eddie Howe’s team showed how clinical they can be.

They had nine shots, 11 fewer than Tottenham, but actually amassed a higher xG total (1.83 to 1.26), showing that the opportunities they created were quality ones.

Indeed, they converted both of their big chances, meaning they join Leicester City (1/1) as the only other team from the weekend to register a 100% big chance conversion rate.

4 – Spurs have lost four of their last six away Premier League games (W1 D1), more than their first 15 on the road under Ange Postecoglou combined (W6 D6 L3). Fragility. pic.twitter.com/TcCL7FMDeR

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 1, 2024

Unlucky losers: Arsenal

Like Chelsea, Arsenal drew, but based on the underlying metrics, and even though they went down to 10 men when Declan Rice was sent off, they could be considered unfortunate not to have beaten Brighton.

Mikel Arteta’s team finished with an xG of 2.14, the fifth-highest total from the weekend, while also creating five big opportunities, from which players would have been anticipated to do better, only for the Gunners to miss four of them.

On the flip side, Arsenal did face 22 shots going the other way, albeit those attempts did not account for a high xG (1.76).