Premier League MD4: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

The Premier League is back after the international break, with plenty more thrills and spills to keep everyone entertained.

Manchester United got back to winning ways with a sweeping 3-0 win over Southampton, while Nottingham Forest stunned Liverpool at Anfield.

Manchester City continued their perfect start with a comeback win over Brentford, and on Sunday Arsenal claimed bragging rights in the North London derby.

But who were the lucky winners and the unlucky losers to emerge from this weekend’s set of fixtures, according to the underlying metrics?

With the help of Opta data, let’s find out.

1995 & 1969 – Nottingham Forest have won four consecutive away Premier League matches for the first time since March/April 1995, with today’s win their first at Anfield in the league since February 1969. Upset. pic.twitter.com/kk1GUUTbPc

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 14, 2024

Lucky winners: Nottingham Forest

Liverpool had made a perfect start to life under Arne Slot and were yet to concede a goal heading into matchday 4, but after a two-week break, things were not quite as rosy.

The Tricky Trees had faced 26 strikes before Callum Hudson-Odoi’s long-range effort curled beyond Alisson, ending a 55-year wait for a Forest win at Anfield.

Forest managed just five shots in the game, creating an expected goals (xG) of 0.44, with Hudson-Odoi’s strike only contributing 0.07 to that. They also managed just five touches in the opposition box.

Liverpool may not have been at their high-flying best, but they had 34 touches in the opposition area and had 14 attempts on Forest’s goal but could not find a way through a well-drilled Nuno Espirito Santo side as Slot got his first taste of defeat in the job.

Unlucky losers: Brighton

Technically, Brighton were not ‘losers’ as they continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 0-0 draw with Ipswich Town.

But based on the metrics, they were unlucky not to come away with three points against the newly promoted side.

The Seagulls had a whopping 21 shots at the Amex Stadium, but accumulated just 1.66 xG, and only managed to test Arijanet Muric on six occasions despite their continued dominance.

They also had three big chances, from which players would have been anticipated to do better, but Kaoru Mitoma and Georginio Rutter failed to convert them as Fabian Hurzeler’s side endured a frustrating day.

Lucky winners: Arsenal

Most Arsenal fans will not care how the victory over rivals Tottenham happened, just that they came away from the visit with three points, but the Gunners were savvy in their victory.

Indeed, Arsenal’s two lowest possession averages (on record) in a Premier League game against Spurs have both come in 2024, with Sunday’s match their lowest total (36.3%).

Mikel Arteta’s side did create a slightly higher xG (0.74 to 0.71), but from a much lower shot count as they only had seven attempts on Spurs’ goal, with Gabriel Magalhaes’ close-range header worth 0.23 xG.

It was Arsenal’s lowest xG of the season so far (0.87 xG on MD2 is second), but their clinical edge proved the difference against a wasteful Spurs.

3 – Three of Arsenal’s last four Premier League goals against rivals Tottenham have been from corners – only three of their previous 88 north London derby league goals had been from corners before this. Jover. pic.twitter.com/BUQ7wFeiaN

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 15, 2024

Unlucky losers: Fulham

Like Brighton, Fulham do not class as losers as they drew 1-1 with West Ham, but Marco Silva will be disappointed to have let the three points slip from their grasp.

Raul Jimenez’s goal looked to have earned them a second win of the season until Danny Ings’ clinical finish denied them.

Fulham were another of the teams to have 21 shots this weekend, the joint-most along with the Seagulls, though their 1.54 xG came in slightly lower, despite creating four big chances, of which they squandered three.

West Ham had only accumulated 0.52 xG until Ings’ intervention, pushing it up to 0.76 with their third and last shot on target, condemning the Cottagers to a second consecutive draw.