Premier League MD5: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

The Premier League delivered another weekend of thrills and spills as the 2024-25 season really clicks into gear.

Manchester City fought back late on to draw 2-2 with Arsenal in the headline fixture of the weekend on Sunday.

Chelsea and Liverpool each claimed 3-0 wins, while Manchester United were frustrated by Crystal Palace.

Meanwhile, the bottom six teams in the league remain without a win, which is a Premier League first five games into a season.

But, what did the underlying metrics suggest about the weekend’s action?

6 – For the first time in English top-flight history, as many as six different teams have failed to win any of their opening five league games. Suspense. pic.twitter.com/nHODrBnWfX

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 22, 2024

Unlucky loser: Man Utd

The data has thrown up an interesting storyline this week – there was not really a particularly unlucky loser or lucky winner.

Instead, the results that were most skewed were draws, with United one of the teams that can consider themselves unfortunate not to have picked up all three points.

They mustered 1.7 expected goals (xG) against Palace at Selhurst Park, having 15 shots and missing all five of their big chances. Only Tottenham (seven) created more big chances in total this weekend.

United had six shots on target, but found their former goalkeeper Dean Henderson in fine form, with Palace’s expected goals on target (xGoT) conceded coming in at 1.9, showing just how well their shot-stopper performed.

Lucky winner: Arsenal

Drawing right at the death may have felt like a defeat for Arsenal, but it is fair to say the pressure had been building for Man City before John Stones steered home in the eighth minute of stoppage time.

Mikel Arteta’s team, reduced to 10 men following Leandro Trossard’s second booking on the stroke of half-time, set out their stall to defend for the second half, and they very nearly got over the line.

Yet City, who had 77.2% of the ball, were dominant. They had 28 shots in the second half alone, the joint-highest ever by a team on record (from 2003-04) in a single half of Premier League football.

City finished with 2.18 xG, while the Gunners recorded just 0.67 – that was the third-lowest figure across the league this weekend.

0 – Neither Jurriën Timber (6 passes) nor Kai Havertz (5 passes) completed any of their passes for Arsenal against Man City today, the first outfield players on record (from 2003-04) to play 89+ minutes of a Premier League match and not successfully pass to a teammate. Plan. pic.twitter.com/4NNPem9pZZ

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 22, 2024

Unlucky loser: Southampton

Two of those six teams at the bottom still waiting for a first league win are Southampton and Ipswich Town, who faced off at St Mary’s on Saturday.

Southampton looked all set to wrap up their maiden victory of 2024-25 until, late on, Sam Morsy’s deflected effort left the hosts stunned.

Only Spurs (3.52) registered a higher xG in the league this round than Southampton (2.49), who missed three of their four big chances.

That being said, Ipswich did have more shots (13 to 11) and recorded 1.69 xG, which suggests the Tractor Boys were at least worthy of one goal.