Premier League MD7: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

There were plenty of thrills and spills across the board in the Premier League as matchday seven ran its course.

Manchester City and Arsenal both had to come from behind to beat Fulham and Southampton respectively at home, while there were eight goals scored as Brentford overcame Wolves 5-3, with six of those strikes coming in the first half in west London.

Liverpool kept themselves ahead at the summit thanks to a 1-0 win at Crystal Palace, while Manchester United stopped the rot by holding Aston Villa, albeit they have now tallied up their lowest points total after seven games of any Premier League season.

Leicester City, meanwhile, grabbed their first win of the campaign, while Anthony Gordon endured a miserable return to Goodison Park with Newcastle United. In the final fixture of the weekend, Brighton stunned Tottenham, forging a second-half comeback to win 3-2 at the Amex Stadium.

So, after all that, who were the unlucky, and lucky, teams based on the underlying metrics?

Lucky winners: Leicester City

Leicester finally got their first top-flight win of the season on the board, as they edged out Bournemouth 1-0 thanks to Facundo Buonanotte’s excellent run and finish.

But, it’s fair to say it was something of a smash-and-grab for Steve Cooper’s team at the King Power Stadium. Leicester had just six shots, with only two of those hitting the target, and they tallied up just 0.79 expected goals (xG).

On the other hand, Bournemouth had 19 attempts, creating five big chances (a tally bettered only by Brentford’s eight and West Ham’s nine this week) and accumulating 2.16 xG.

Bournemouth only have themselves to blame for wasteful finishing – they got just two of their efforts on target – but the Cherries can still consider themselves unfortunate.

Unlucky losers: Newcastle

Determined to impress against his former club, Gordon fluffed his lines when his big moment arrived as Newcastle drew 0-0 with Everton on Saturday.

With James Tarkowski having conceded a penalty by recklessly pulling the shirt of Sandro Tonali, Gordon stepped up to the spot, but Jordan Pickford guessed the right way.

While Everton wanted a penalty of their own in the second half, the Toffees were largely second-best and that is backed up by the metrics. Even discounting Gordon’s spot-kick, Newcastle finished with 1.26 xG and 14 shots. The hosts accumulated 0.67 xG and had eight attempts.

Lucky winners: Man City

It’s not often that the champions are given a run for their money at home, but Fulham did just that.

Indeed, Fulham finished with 2.6 xG at the Etihad Stadium, the fourth-highest total across the league this weekend, while they created five big chances.

Pep Guardiola has said he is not concerned by Man City’s unusually open defence, but he will want to see better from his team in that regard after the international break.

Going forward, City benefited from three excellent finishes – two from Mateo Kovacic and one from Jeremy Doku. Their 1.57 xG came from 20 shots, though they created only one big chance.