Premier League MD8: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

Premier League football returned after the international break with a bang, with 28 goals scored, five players sent off and two injury-time winners over the weekend.

The action kicked off with a London derby as Tottenham swept aside West Ham, with Leicester City producing a remarkable comeback to beat Southampton before Aston Villa kept pace with the top four with a 3-1 win over Fulham.

Manchester United came from a goal down to beat Brentford, as Everton extended their unbeaten run at the expense of Ipswich Town, while Arsenal were dealt their first defeat of the season away to Bournemouth after William Saliba’s dismissal.

Liverpool remained at the Premier League summit after beating Chelsea in an entertaining affair at Anfield, but Manchester City are hot on their heels, albeit they needed a late John Stones header to edge past Wolves.

So, after all that, who were the unlucky, and lucky, teams based on the underlying metrics?

Unlucky losers: Newcastle United

Newcastle’s poor run of form continued in the Premier League as Danny Welbeck’s strike helped Brighton to a 1-0 triumph at St. James’ Park.

100 – Danny Welbeck has now scored (72) or assisted (28) 100 Premier League goals. The Brighton forward has netted as many goals in the league this season (5 in 8 apps) as he managed the whole of last term (5 in 29). Hot. pic.twitter.com/pHW1whAaKp

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 19, 2024

However, the Magpies will feel they should have taken at least a point for their efforts, ending the contest with an expected goals (xG) total of 2.02, a number only bettered by Southampton (2.15) and Leicester City (3.21) across the weekend’s fixtures.

Fifteen of Newcastle’s attempts also came from inside the box compared to Brighton’s eight, while Eddie Howe’s side managed 45 touches in the opposition box, with only Man City (85) registering more on matchday eight.

Newcastle managed 21 shots, though only six were on target, with Brighton ultimately being more clinical. The Seagulls accumulated an xG total of 1.12 from their 10 attempts, but also had Bart Verbruggen to thank, with the Dutchman making six saves on the day.

Lucky winners: Liverpool

Arne Slot continued his excellent start to life as Liverpool head coach with a 2-1 victory over Chelsea, though this was arguably his toughest assignment to date.

While the Reds ended the contest with an xG total of 1.94 compared to Chelsea’s 0.99, it was Enzo Maresca’s side that posed the bigger questions at Anfield, registering 12 shots, though only two were on Caoimhin Kelleher’s goal.

Jadon Sancho also felt he should have been awarded a penalty for a tangle of legs with Trent Alexander-Arnold in the first half, with Nicolas Jackson also striking the woodwork before the interval.

The Blues also managed more shots in the box (nine) compared to Liverpool’s seven, as well as registering more touches in the opposition box (26 to Liverpool’s 17) and 56 final third entries to the Reds’ 54.

Indeed, Liverpool’s non-penalty xG was 1.15, so a 1-1 draw would probably have been a fair result.

10 – Only Pep Guardiola (won first 10) has reached 10 wins in all competitions as a Premier League manager in fewer matches than Arne Slot, who has won 10 of his first 11 games with Liverpool. Elite. pic.twitter.com/qeifIL5UGn

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 20, 2024

Unlucky losers: Fulham

After pushing Man City all the way before the international break, Fulham returned with another good performance, but fell short once again, this time against Aston Villa.

Morgan Rogers quickly cancelled out Raul Jiminez’s opener, though Andreas Pereira fluffed his lines from the penalty spot after a brilliant save from Emiliano Martinez.

Fulham accumulated an xG total of 1.78 compared to Villa’s 1.68, but Ollie Watkins and Issa Diop’s unfortunate own-goal sealed the triumph for Unai Emery’s side, who are back in Champions League action in midweek.

Marco Silva’s team were left to rue another encounter with squandered opportunities, failing to take any of the four big chances they created, while only four of their 10 attempts at Craven Cottage were on target compared to Villa’s five from 14 shots.