Premier League MD9: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

The first managerial departure of the 2024-25 Premier League season has come, with Erik ten Hag leaving his role at Manchester United.

United’s decision to dismiss Ten Hag came after the Red Devils slumped to a 2-1 defeat at West Ham on Sunday, leaving them 14th in the table.

Elsewhere, Liverpool and Arsenal shared the spoils in a 2-2 draw, Manchester City downed Southampton, Chelsea beat Newcastle United and Brentford came out on top in a seven-goal thriller against Ipswich Town.

Late goals also ruled the roost this past weekend. There were five games to have a final result-altering goal scored in the 90th minute (or later) in the Premier League this weekend, the most across a single matchday in the competition’s history.

But what do the underlying metrics tell us?

Unlucky losers: Fulham

Fulham took a point away from Goodison Park on Saturday, but Marco Silva thought his team deserved two more.

And it is fair to say Everton were largely second-best, with Beto’s last-gasp equaliser sparring Sean Dyche’s team.

Fulham, who took the lead through Alex Iwobi, registered 1.26 expected goals (xG) to Everton’s 0.79 and had 14 shots to their hosts’ 10. That being said, perhaps Silva’s side only have themselves to blame – they converted only 7.14% of their shots and got only three attempts on target.

Lucky winners: Bournemouth

Evanilson’s late header secured a 1-1 draw for Bournemouth at Aston Villa, and though the Cherries could point to some potential penalty decisions going against them, it is fair to say the metrics suggest they were fortunate to avoid defeat.

Only Southampton (0.21) mustered a lower xG than Bournemouth’s 0.31 across the fixtures in the top flight this past weekend.

Villa, on the other hand, registered 1.81 xG – the fifth-highest total in the division across the games – while Mark Travers was exceptional in the Bournemouth goal.

He made seven saves to keep Villa at bay, bar Ross Barkley’s opener. Indeed, Villa’s 3.23 expected goals on target (xGoT) was more than any other team in matchweek nine, so Travers finished with a goals-prevented figure of 2.23.

Andoni Iraola’s team certainly rode their luck.

Unlucky losers: Man Utd

Ten Hag’s time is up, though the Dutchman was fuming about a contentious penalty decision that ultimately settled the match in West Ham’s favour.

When discounting the xG from that penalty, West Ham finished with 2.21 xG – just less than United’s 2.34.

United had 18 shots and five big chances (the second-most after Brentford across the weekend’s matches), but failed to put those opportunities away, apart from Casemiro’s close-range header.

The soft defence that plagued Ten Hag’s tenure, though, ultimately came back to bite them yet again.