There are many well-known betting strategies that punters are using to gain an edge over bookmakers. Martingale, Fibonacci, Paroli, or Kelly, to name a few, are being used by punters regularly. Even so, the most important variable in making a long-term profit remains the ratio between your winning and losing bets. In this article, I will show you the best d’Alembert football betting strategy that could bring you a decent profit in the long run.
What is the D’Alembert betting system?
Jean le Rond d’Alembert was a French mathematician who lived in the 18th Century. His formula was used to solve the wave equation, which later received the name of the d’Alembert equation. His equation later became the basis for the fundamental theorem of Algebra which is known in modern times as d’Almebert/Gauss theorem.
Although his breakthrough in mathematics and physics was revolutionary this genius was not always right. The French mathematician was wrong to argue in Croix ou Pile that the probability of a coin landing heads increased each time the toss turned tails.
The d’Alembert betting strategy is based on a negative stake progression. After each bet won you decrease the stake with 1 unit, and after each bet lost you increase the stake with 1 unit.
This betting system is used by punters across all platforms. From sports betting and casinos to card games like poker and E-sports. Although the principle is very simple and easy to use, it can bring you a decent profit in the long run. It has an advantage over the Martingale betting strategy since you increase your stake gradually.
How does the D’Alembert system work in football betting
Now that I explained to you the principle of the d’Alembert system, let’s have an example to illustrate better how this strategy works in football betting. The same as Martingale, the d’Alembert betting strategy can be successful only if:
- you have a minimum odds of 2 for each bet placed.
- you boost a high number of wins (at least 50%, depending on the odds).
Check this article if you want to learn how to bet successfully using the Martingale strategy!
To have the system illustrated better, 1 unit = 10.
In the above scenario, having a 50% chance of winning rate (5 bets from 10) at odds 2, we had a 30-unit profit. As you can see, the d’Alembert betting system is more steady, keeping the stake in control. A slower decrease after each bet won coupled with a slower increase after each bet lost will minimize the risk. In this case, we can avoid losing the entire bankroll if we are on a losing streak.
You can use in-play betting or build Accumulators to reach the minimum odds required. Also, depending on your knowledge, wager money only on the sports that you follow closely. Keep it simple regarding the betting markets you choose. A full-time result is easier to predict compared to other special markets like goalscorers, betting on cards or corners.
How to win football bets using the d’Alembert betting strategy
Depending on your goals, knowledge and available bankroll you can use different strategies using the d’Alembert system in betting. If you have a large bankroll that will allow you to lose many consecutive bets without going bust, I advise you to build your strategy based on the in-play matches. You will get significantly higher odds compared to pre-match betting, but your win rate will drop.
For example, you could back top teams to lead after 20 minutes of play, in the matches played at home against bottom-half-of-the-table opponents. The likes of Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Manchester City, Real Madrid, PSG and other top sides are dominating domestically. Statistics show that on most occasions, they will lead after 20 minutes of game time. The odds are in general above 3, depending on the opponent.
If you have a small bank, I advise you to bet pre-match using safer selections. For example, using the same top teams you could back them to lead at half-time when they are facing sides who are in the top half of the table (see below).
Top of the table PSG travelled to 7th placed Reims in a difficult fixture predicted by the bookies. However, the current champions have dominated the game from start to finish. Mbappe & Co took the lead in the 1st half, just to kill the match with another 2 goals scored in the 2nd act. The bookmakers gave us a golden opportunity to exploit the halftime market (average odds 2.16 for PSG to lead).
The best D’Alembert football betting strategy for 2024
With the 2023-2024 season being already halfway through we can easily pick up some patterns the teams already displayed so far. For example, Bari from Serie B is an excellent team to bet on the full-time draw result. Always check the latest news before the kick-off!
No less than 11 games from the 19th Bari played ended with a draw. That is more than half of their entire games of the season played so far. The odds for each bet are very high for a single pre-match bet. Bari had a strong start to the season for our strategy, boosting an impressive 6 games undecided in the first 8 rounds.
With 287 units in profit having a standard stake of 10 is excellent. Add another 0 to the stake of 10 and the profit would have turned in 2870. As I previously explained, the d’Alembert betting system is less risky considering the small increase after each loss. Also, Bari’s longest streak without a draw was just 4 games, the stakes could be easily covered by the previous wins. How else you could get a 66.74% ROI (return on investment) after 19 bets?
The downside of this strategy is that you need a lot of patience since this is a season-long marathon and not a sprint! If you lack patience, I advise you to research and find another 3-4 teams that are consistently drawing and bet on them each time they play. For example, Spezia and Reggiana from the same league (Serie B) boost 42% draws.
Remember to always test any betting strategy before you wager a serious amount of money and, even more importantly, Gamble Responsibly!
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