The Numbers Game: Arsenal seek revenge over Aston Villa

Arsenal made a solid start to their latest Premier League title challenge last week, beating Wolves 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium with goals from Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka.

Matchday two, however, promises to present a far tougher challenge for Mikel Arteta’s team as they face the team that could be considered responsible for their failure to finish as champions in 2023-24.

Aston Villa – under former Arsenal boss Unai Emery – beat the Gunners home and away last term, with April’s 2-0 win at the Emirates allowing Manchester City to inch ahead at the top of the table and claim a fourth straight title.

Villa also started with a win last week, with Jhon Duran stepping off the bench to fire them to a 2-1 victory at West Ham.

Ahead of Saturday’s headline clash at Villa Park, we run through all the best Opta facts and stats around the game.

Matchweek 1 pic.twitter.com/TjXlVni9FJ

— Premier League (@premierleague) August 20, 2024

What’s expected?

The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal favourites for victory on matchday two, though not overwhelmingly.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 51.1% of cases. Villa repeated last season’s heroics against the Gunners in 24.7% of scenarios, while 24.2% saw the points shared.

Villa’s double over the Gunners last term accounted for 40% of the Premier League defeats suffered by Arteta’s team (2/5). They have recorded three straight Premier League wins against them on two previous occasions, in November 1993 and February 2021.

In fact, Villa have won five of their last nine Premier League meetings with Arsenal (four defeats), keeping a clean sheet in every victory.

That is as many wins as they had managed in their previous 46 league matches against the Gunners (14 draws, 27 defeats).

Nobody will remember:
– Your salary
– How “busy you were”
– How many hours you worked

People will remember:
– John McGinn’s goal last time we played Arsenal at Villa Park
– The limbs in the Holte End pic.twitter.com/581aeTfzst

— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) August 20, 2024

Arsenal, though, have won 14 away Premier League games against the Villans, their joint-most wins at a single away venue in the competition, having also triumphed 14 times at Crystal Palace’s Selhurst Park.

The Gunners have also scored 98 Premier League goals against Villa in total, only netting more against Everton (124), West Ham (109) and Tottenham (105). Liverpool and Manchester United (five opponents each) are the only teams to have netted 100 or more Premier League goals against more different clubs.

Watkins to cause more Arsenal woe?

Villa may have made a winning start to their campaign, spoiling Julen Lopetegui’s West Ham debut with an entertaining win at the London Stadium, but Emery will be looking for a more convincing performance this time out.

Only Liverpool (2.65 versus Ipswich Town) created a higher expected goals (xG) figure than West Ham’s 2.46 on matchday one of the Premier League season, albeit 0.78 of that figure came from a Lucas Paqueta penalty – perhaps harshly awarded against Matty Cash.

West Ham 1-2 Aston Villa

Unlike last season, Aston Villa begin their campaign with an impressive away win.

Jhon Durán’s winner, assisted by Jacob Ramsey, was Villa’s fourth Premier League goal in 2024 where both players involved were subs, more than any other side.#WHUAVL pic.twitter.com/pEbHCkDCfR

— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) August 17, 2024

Of the 11 teams to give up the most expected goals against (xGA) in the division last weekend, Villa were the only one to taste victory – Brentford were the next-most porous victors, allowing Crystal Palace 1.17 xG in a 2-1 win on Sunday.

Villa will need a far better defensive display if they are to stifle Arsenal on Saturday, while they will also be desperate to get more service to Ollie Watkins, who did not attempt a single shot before his 62nd-minute withdrawal versus the Hammers.

Watkins only registered two touches in the West Ham area, one fewer than his replacement Duran, also recording the fewest touches (15), passes attempted (five) and completed (four) of all 22 starters.

Facing an Arsenal side likely to press high and leave space in behind could suit Watkins, though, as he plays his way back into peak condition after helping England reach the Euro 2024 final.

Watkins capped April’s 2-0 win at the Emirates with a delightfully dinked finish that put Arsenal on the back foot in the title race, his fifth goal in eight Premier League meetings with the Gunners.

He has been on the winning side in four of those eight games (four losses), and only against Brighton and Hove Albion (six) has he scored more top-flight goals than he has versus Arsenal. The visiting defence must be wary.

Solid spine key for the Gunners?

Villa are the only team to beat Arsenal in the Premier League in 2024, with Arteta’s team winning 17 of their 19 games this calendar year (one draw, one loss). In English Football League history, the most wins ever recorded by a team through their first 20 matches in a year is 18, by Liverpool in 1982 and Man City in 2019 and 2021.

The Gunners have been particularly impressive on the road, winning on eight of nine Premier League road trips (one draw) in 2024, scoring 28 goals, conceding three and keeping seven clean sheets in that time.

Arsenal only allowed opponents to create a total of 5.89 xG in those matches, an average of 0.65 per game. The league’s next-best ever-present defensive team this year, Man City, have given up 12.39 xGA in 10 road trips.

In the last two seasons, the Gunners have kept 21 away clean sheets (10 in 2022-23, 11 in 2023-24), more than they managed in their previous four campaigns combined (20).

If they can maintain similar levels of solidity in 2024-25 – particularly on their travels – then another title tilt appears a realistic goal.

Arsenal did endure some shaky spells against Wolves last time out, with Jorgen Strand Larsen and Matheus Cunha guilty of passing up huge chances to level when Gary O’Neil’s team built up a head of steam, but the Gunners gave up just 0.47 xGA – the fifth-lowest figure of any team on matchday one.

Jurrien Timber came on to steady the ship for the Gunners late on after missing the majority of 2023-24 through injury, while new signing Riccardo Calafiori was an unused substitute.

It remains to be seen whether Arteta will introduce either player to his lineup at Villa Park, where Arsenal must be wary of the direct running of Watkins, Leon Bailey and company.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Aston Villa – Jhon Duran

Duran came on to score the winner against West Ham last week, having been linked with the Irons throughout the transfer window.

Among all players to score at least five Premier League goals, Duran has the second-best minutes-per-goal ratio (six goals, one every 103 minutes), behind only Erling Haaland (one every 85 minutes).

Five of his six strikes, meanwhile, have come as a substitute (83%). That is the second-highest ratio by any player to ever score at least five Premier League goals, behind Matt Derbyshire, who scored nine of his 10 goals from the bench.

Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

Saka registered a goal and an assist in Arsenal’s victory over Wolves last week, also creating the joint-most chances (three) of any player on the pitch. He has now been on the winning side in 99 of his 171 Premier League matches with Arsenal.

Another victory would make him the fourth player to reach 100 wins in the competition before turning 23, after Wayne Rooney, Cesc Fabregas and Phil Foden.

The England winger was involved in 11 attacking sequences against Wolves on matchday one, more than any other player on the pitch, ahead of Havertz and Thomas Partey (eight apiece).