The Numbers Game: Arteta hoping for response against in-form Liverpool

Two of this season’s title challengers go head-to-head in this weekend’s headline Premier League clash as league leaders Liverpool travel to Arsenal.

The Gunners are looking to put things right after suffering a shock 2-0 defeat to Bournemouth last time out in the competition, putting them on the back foot in the race for top spot already.

And they face a Liverpool side that are flying high under Arne Slot, who passed his first ‘real’ Premier League test on Merseyside by seeing off high-flying Chelsea last week.

The Dutchman has overseen a seamless transition after taking over from Jurgen Klopp and is the first manager to win as many as 11 of his first 12 games in charge across all competitions in English top-flight history.

They now face off in what both managers will deem a must-win after both posting scrappy 1-0 victories in the Champions League in midweek, over Shakhtar Donetsk and RB Leipzig respectively.

Here, using Opta data, we delve into the key insights ahead of Sunday’s clash at the Emirates.

What’s expected?

Arsenal have won their last two Premier League home games against Liverpool and are looking to win three on the bounce for the first time since a run of four between 2004 and 2006.

In fact, the Gunners are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games against Liverpool (two wins, two draws), taking more points from those four games (eight) than they had in their previous 14 against the Reds (seven – one win, four draws, nine losses).

Arsenal have also lost just twice in the Premier League in 2024 (21 wins, three draws), though they are hoping to avoid losing back-to-back games in the competition for the first time since December 2023.

Despite their recent result, Arsenal are still tipped as slight favourites in this tie, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 41.3% chance of victory.

Liverpool, however, come out on top in 32.3% of the simulations, with a draw potentially on the cards at 26.5%.

While the Reds have not beaten Arsenal since March 2022 in the Premier League – a 2-0 victory thanks to goals from Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino – they did win at the Emirates earlier this year by the same scoreline in the FA Cup third round.

And one thing you can almost guarantee for Liverpool in this tie is goals. They have not failed to score in any of their last 17 Premier League meetings with Arsenal since a 0-0 draw back in August 2015.

Arteta struggling for balance

Mikel Arteta will be hoping that Arsenal’s defeat to Bournemouth was nothing more than a blip come the end of the season, but there were worrying signs for the Spaniard, especially before one of their biggest games.

The Gunners’ downfall on the south coast was of their own making as they were undone by a set-piece before David Raya gave away a penalty that secured their fate, all after another first-half sending-off.

William Saliba was given his marching orders in the 30th minute, Arsenal’s third of the Premier League campaign already. Another one against Liverpool would equal an unwanted record for the most dismissals after nine matches of a single season in the competition – done twice by the Reds and once by Leicester City and Sunderland.

Saliba had played every Premier League minute since the start of last season before his red card. Since his debut, Arsenal have a 74% win rate and concede an average of 0.8 goals per game with him in the team, but that drops to 45% and 1.6 conceded per game without him.

And it has given Arteta a dilemma, as he is expected to be light on defenders due to Riccardo Calafiori and Jurrien Timber’s injuries. They may also be without Bukayo Saka again, but even if the England international does miss out, Arteta has plenty of firepower available.

They have scored 15 goals in the Premier League this season, the same as Sunday’s opponents, while only Manchester City, Tottenham and Chelsea have netted more than them.

And Gabriel Martinelli loves playing against Liverpool – he has been involved in more goals against them in all competitions than he has against any other side (seven – five goals, two assists). Four of those five goals have put Arsenal in the lead in the match, including all three such Premier League strikes.

For Arteta, this game will be all about trying to find the right balance, though his main aim will be trying to keep all 11 of his men on the field until the final whistle.

Standing strong at the back

Much has already been made about Slot’s start in the Liverpool dugout, but a result against one of last season’s top two will still go a long way to silencing the last of his doubters.

The Dutchman’s only blot on his record was their 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest at Anfield, but their away record has so far been perfect. They are just the seventh top-flight English side to win each of their opening six away games across all competitions in a season.

In fact, they are the third team to do so in the Premier League era, after Newcastle in 1994-95 and Manchester City in 2017-18.

Mohamed Salah and Luis Diaz are sitting towards the top of the goalscoring charts, benefitting from Slot’s free-flowing style of play, but it is their defensive stability that has made them tough to beat.

Liverpool have conceded fewer goals than any other team in the Premier League this season (three), while they also have the lowest xG against total (6.2).

Their three goals conceded are also their joint-fewest after eight games of a league campaign in club history (also three in 1978-79 and 2018-19).

And while there were some questions about how well Liverpool would cope without Alisson in goal, those issues look to have been eased too. In their Champions League win over Leipzig on Wednesday, Caoimhin Kelleher made six saves.

Indeed, his 16 saves this season have a goals-prevented value of 3.0, just above the Brazilian’s 2.6 in 2024-25, so Slot’s solid foundation should prove a real test for the Gunners.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – Kai Havertz

Kai Havertz has scored in each of his last five Premier League appearances at the Emirates Stadium.

The only Arsenal player to score in more successive home appearances in the competition is Thierry Henry, who has done so twice (six from March to August 2000 and seven from May to October 2004).

Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

Salah has five goals and five assists in the Premier League this season – with just eight games played, this is the earliest into a season a Liverpool player has both scored five or more goals and assisted five or more goals in the competition.

He has also scored and assisted in 34 different matches in the Premier League: the second-most of any player in the competition’s history, only behind Wayne Rooney (36).