The Numbers Game: Can Arsenal and Havertz find shooting boots against Tottenham?

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On the eve of the second North London derby of the season, grumbles of discontent are audible among supporters of both Arsenal and Tottenham.

While Mikel Arteta’s Gunners have been steady enough in the Premier League, looking the most likely team to capitalise if runaway leaders Liverpool slip up, back-to-back defeats in the domestic cups have left them facing the prospect of a fifth trophyless season in a row.

Two goals down at the halfway stage of their EFL Cup semi-final tie against Newcastle United and out of the FA Cup, Arsenal have come in for stern criticism in recent days.

Tottenham, meanwhile, have their own issues. Ange Postecoglou’s men lead their own EFL Cup semi-final tie against Liverpool and advanced in the FA Cup by beating Tamworth on Sunday, but have won just one of their last eight league games to sit 12th in the table.

The two neighbours do battle at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday, in what could be one of their most important meetings of recent years.

But which way will the game go, and what are the key storylines to look out for? Read on for our Opta-powered preview.

“We’ll go to Wednesday, another opportunity for us, probably at the right time as well to get what we deserve, perform again and give our supporters what they deserve as well.””

Mikel Arteta is keen to move on and prepare for our upcoming Premier League north London derby

— Arsenal (@Arsenal) January 12, 2025

What’s expected?

As the only team yet to lose a home Premier League game this season, Arsenal enter this match as heavy favourites.

Of 10,000 match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal won 64.7% and were only beaten in 18.4%, with the remaining 16.9% finishing all square.

Arsenal have won six of their last eight league games against Spurs (one draw, one defeat) and are looking to win three in a row against them for the first time since January 1989 (a run of five).

Indeed, following their 1-0 away win in September, Arsenal could complete the Premier League double over Tottenham for the fifth time. Only in 2013-14, however, have they done so without conceding in either match.

Tottenham have only won one of their last 31 away Premier League games against Arsenal, drawing 12 and losing 18, while they are also winless in 13 trips to the Emirates since a 3-2 victory in November 2010.

Is Havertz the answer?

While Arsenal boast the Premier League’s best defensive record in 2024-25 with just 18 goals conceded, their shortcomings at the other end of the pitch have been well-documented.

Arsenal average 1.75 expected goals (xG) per Premier League game in 2024-25, down on their figures from 2023-24 (2.04) and 2022-23 (1.9). Being without Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka for periods due to injuries has not helped their cause, but the problem in recent weeks has not been creating chances, rather putting them away.

They dominated against Newcastle and Manchester United in last week’s cup contests, racking up 3.22 expected goals (xG) in each game but only scoring once to underperform their combined figures by 5.44.

3.22 – Arsenal recorded the same expected goals total in each of their last two games against Newcastle United and Manchester United (3.22), but scored just once, underperforming their xG by 5.4 goals. Misfiring. pic.twitter.com/TI0OBDYaV6

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) January 13, 2025

Kai Havertz has been singled out for particular criticism in recent days, having missed a host of chances in Arsenal’s cup defeats.

Across those two matches, Havertz attempted nine shots, all of them from inside the penalty area, totalling 1.91 xG. There were several glaring misses among those efforts, while he was also the only player to fail to convert in the penalty shoot-out against United.

Havertz’s underlying figures in the Premier League this season do not make for terrible reading, with the former Chelsea man scoring seven times from 7.81 xG for a marginal underperformance.

However, among all players to score at least five times in the competition this term, only Brennan Johnson, Antoine Semenyo and Morgan Rogers have hit the target with fewer of their shots than Havertz (50%).

Havertz is the only Arsenal player with more than five league goals in 2024-25, but many have asked whether he is clinical enough to lead a title challenge. For now, though, Arteta may not have much of a choice.

Gabriel Jesus was carried off on a stretcher against United, while Saka remains a long-term absentee. Havertz is likely to lead the line again when Spurs visit, and each of his last 11 Premier League goals have come in London. The last Arsenal player to have a longer such run was Lukas Podolski between December 2012 and April 2014 (12).

Arteta will hope home comforts can bring the best out of Havertz on Wednesday.

Adaptation from Ange?

“It’s just who we are, mate”, declared Postecoglou after his Tottenham side were thrashed 4-1 by Chelsea in November 2023, having adopted a daring high line despite being reduced to nine men. The main criticism of Postecoglou since he arrived in England has centred on a refusal to tweak his principles in the name of results.

Those shouts have reached a fever pitch in recent weeks, with Tottenham only taking five points from their last eight Premier League games, their lone win in that span coming against bottom club Southampton. Saints (one) and Leicester City (four) are the only teams to take fewer points in that time.

While Tottenham survived a huge scare when they were taken to extra time by Tamworth in the FA Cup on Sunday, might last week’s EFL Cup first-leg win over Liverpool have shown there is a different side to Ange-ball?

Spurs had just 39.9% possession in their 1-0 victory over the Reds, their fourth-lowest share in any game under Postecoglou.

They played more long balls (49) and a higher proportion of their passes long (11.7%) against Liverpool than in any other game this season, with Lucas Bergvall’s winner coming after one such pass from Pedro Porro.

Tottenham still looked to press high, but their insistence on playing out from the back was tempered by a realisation that Liverpool are exceptional in the counter-press. A similar approach could pay dividends on Wednesday, particularly with defenders Destiny Udogie, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven and Ben Davies still sidelined.

Only Southampton (36) and Aston Villa (23) have made more errors leading to shots in the Premier League than Spurs (21) this season, so a change in the way they build up against the league’s best teams has been overdue.

Tottenham have, though, scored the most goals as a result of opposition errors (11) in the Premier League this term, so do not expect them to dial down the press.

As a team, Spurs have applied more pressures in the final third than any other side in the Premier League this campaign (1,321). Striker Dominic Solanke leads the way among all players, with his total of 386 over 100 more than the next highest (Erling Haaland, 275).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – Martin Odegaard

Odegaard had a penalty saved by Altay Bayindir with Arsenal and Man United locked at 1-1 on Sunday, and he will be desperate to bounce back here.

Only Saka (42) and Declan Rice (29) have created more chances for Arsenal than Odegaard (27) in the Premier League this season, despite the Norwegian being limited to 13 appearances.

Tottenham – Son Heung-min

Son has a solid record in North London derbies, only scoring more Premier League goals against Southampton (11), Leicester and Crystal Palace (nine each) than he has managed against Arsenal (seven).

Meanwhile, no player has provided more assists following a ball carry in the Premier League this season than Son (five). His next assist will make him the outright assist leader for Spurs in the Premier League (currently 68, level with Darren Anderton).