The Numbers Game: Can Arsenal get back on track after Premier League stumbles?

Arsenal’s Premier League title hopes look all but over after a number of slip-ups in recent weeks, but they are hoping to bounce back against Chelsea on Sunday.

With Liverpool not in league action this weekend due to the EFL Cup final, Arsenal have the chance to close the gap slightly, if they can put their wobbles behind them.

The gap at the top of the Premier League stretched to 15 points last weekend, though Arsenal have found some goodwill by winning big in the Champions League against PSV in the last 16. They recorded a 9-3 aggregate triumph in that tie, though drew 2-2 in the second leg at home on Wednesday.

The Gunners have picked up just two points in their last three league games, and Chelsea are one of those starting to close in on Arsenal as they continue their hunt for a top-four finish.

A 1-0 win over Enzo Maresca’s former club, Leicester City, pushed the Blues into a Champions League spot last week, but they will need to overcome their troubles on the road if they want to hold onto it.

Here, using Opta data, we delve into the key insights ahead of Sunday’s clash at the Emirates Stadium.

What’s expected?

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six Premier League games against Chelsea (W4 D2), their longest run without a league defeat against them since a run of 19 between 1995 and 2005.

Overall, they have won six of their last nine Premier League matches against the Blues (D2 L1). Their previous six wins against Chelsea in the competition had come over a 32-game period between 2004 and 2020 (D10 L16).

Chelsea’s last trip to the Emirates could be playing on their minds heading into Sunday’s tie, as they lost this exact fixture 5-0 last season, conceding four goals in the second half as they were blown away by Mikel Arteta’s side.

Indeed, Chelsea have lost their last two away league games against Arsenal – they last suffered three league defeats in a row at the Gunners between 2001 and 2003.

Given their recent dominance in this fixture, Arsenal are the favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, with a 52.2% win probability.

Chelsea, meanwhile, are more likely to get a draw (24.3%) than a win (23.6%), based on the model’s pre-match simulations.

Arsenal have a mountain to climb

Arsenal’s title chances had looked slim for a while, but last week’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United – coupled with Liverpool’s win over Southampton – looks to have all but finished the title race.

The Gunners’ hopes of winning a first Premier League title since 2004 are very slim, with the Opta supercomputer giving them just a 0.6% chance of pipping the Reds to the top, even with a game in hand.

That is this tie against Chelsea, which looks even more important as a three-game winless streak in the league has seen the pack chasing Champions League qualification start to close in on Arsenal.

That run started with a 1-0 defeat to West Ham at the Emirates – their first league defeat on home soil this campaign.

Arsenal’s home form had been solid this season, winning eight of their games (D4), scoring 27 goals and keeping five clean sheets, and Arteta will be desperate to regain their edge back on familiar ground.

They have never lost back-to-back London derbies at the Emirates in the Premier League, last doing so at Highbury in the 2005-06 campaign, with those defeats coming against Chelsea and West Ham.

Arsenal’s recent slump may not come as too much of a surprise given their depleted attacking ranks, with Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz all sidelined.

They have scored just four goals in their last four Premier League games since the latter suffered a season-ending injury.

Recent form may have been playing on their minds against PSV as they twice gave up a lead against the Dutch side, and Arteta’s main aim will be to regain the attacking flair they showed in the first leg of that tie.

Can Palmer break his drought?

As touched upon, Chelsea’s hopes of qualifying for the Champions League next season are firmly in their hands after their recent uptick in form, but there are still problems for Maresca to solve.

They have won just four of their last 12 Premier League matches (D3 L5), and all of those victories came at Stamford Bridge, with the club last winning on the road in the league on December 8 (4-3 v Tottenham).

They have lost each of their last three top-flight away games – as many as in the previous 19 beforehand (W9 D7). In fact, they have not won any of their last six on the road (D2 L4), their longest run since October 2022-February 2023 (eight).

Their dip has coincided with an uncharacteristic goal drought for Cole Palmer, who has failed to hit the back of the net in each of his last seven Premier League matches.

Palmer has not found the back of the net in any of his last 10 matches in all competitions. He was given 45 minutes in their 1-0 win over Copenhagen in the Europa Conference League on Thursday, which sent the Blues into the quarter-finals, but failed to score despite having four shots during his cameo.

He looked set to break that duck last weekend against Leicester as he stepped up from 12 yards but instead missed a Premier League penalty for the first time (13th attempt). It ended the best 100% success record from the spot in the competition in the process.

He last found the net in a 2-2 draw with Bournemouth on January 14, going 683 minutes without a goal since then. He has had 29 shots without success in that time.

Needless to say, it would be the perfect time for Palmer to find his clinical edge once more, against an Arsenal side who have not been at their best in recent weeks.

He has often served as a talisman for the Blues since signing from Manchester City, and Chelsea will need all the help they can get.

Since the start of 2021-22, they have only won three of their 19 Premier League away games against sides starting the day above them in the table (D3 L13), with their most recent such victory coming against Bournemouth in September 2024 (1-0).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – Declan Rice

With Arsenal’s current lack of strikers, Rice has stepped up, scoring against both Man Utd in the Premier League and PSV in the Champions League.

Against United, he also had the most touches in the opposition box (six, level with Jurrien Timber) and the most final-third entries (15) of any Arsenal player, while only Martin Odegaard played more passes into the final third (38) than his 36.

He did not shirk his defensive duties either, winning possession seven times (another team-high), with two of those turnovers coming in the final third.

Chelsea – Marc Cucurella

While Palmer is struggling for goals at the minute, Cucurella has found his shooting boots.

Cucurella has scored on his last two Premier League appearances, as many as in his first 69 for Chelsea.

All four of his goals for the Blues have come this season, with Reece James the last defender to score more in a single campaign for the club (five in 2021-22).

Among defenders in the competition, only Manchester City’s Josko Gvardiol (five) has scored more goals than the Spaniard this season, with this the best goalscoring return of his career (bettering his three for Getafe in 2020-21).