The Numbers Game: Can Arsenal handle Rice absence in derby clash with Tottenham?

The Premier League is back following the first international break of the season, and Sunday’s headline fixture looks to be worth the wait as Tottenham host Arsenal.

The first North London Derby of the campaign comes after disappointing results for both sides on matchday three, with Arsenal losing early ground on Manchester City and Liverpool as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Brighton.

Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs, meanwhile, were beaten 2-1 at Newcastle United, leaving them three points behind their rivals in the early-season standings.

What can we expect as these North London heavyweights go head-to-head for local bragging rights at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium?

By diving into the Opta data, we can bring you all the best pre-match facts, figures and storylines.

Tomas Rosicky’s north London derby stunner

Which current @Arsenal player is most likely to produce a strike like this on Sunday? pic.twitter.com/oNrsKQSazE

— Premier League (@premierleague) September 12, 2024

What’s expected?

Arsenal have had the upper hand in the North London Derbies of late, and the Opta supercomputer makes them slight favourites despite the absence of home advantage.

They were victorious in 40% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, with Tottenham triumphing in 34.1% and the remaining 26% finishing all square.

Arsenal have won their last two Premier League away games against Tottenham, as many as in their previous 17 such visits (six draws and nine defeats). They last won three consecutive away North London Derbies between January 1987 and September 1988.

Draws have been a rarity at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which has seen the lowest percentage of draws (9%, 9/101) of any ground in Premier League history, so perhaps we should not expect the spoils to be shared.

Spurs haven’t beaten their north London rivals in two seasons

Will they have better fortunes this Sunday? pic.twitter.com/Nql7y15k5A

— Premier League (@premierleague) September 11, 2024

When will Tottenham stop being Spursy?

The adjective ‘Spursy’ is not one any team wishes to be tagged with, coming to denote a side that flatters to deceive and ultimately falls short of expectations.

Postecoglou has made no secret of his desire to cast that perception aside and make Tottenham true contenders, but their start to 2024-25 has thrown up several familiar themes.

Spurs were utterly dominant on matchday one but could not hold onto a 1-0 lead at newly promoted Leicester City, starting their second straight season under Postecoglou with an underwhelming draw.

After routing hapless Everton, they were then beaten 2-1 at Newcastle despite firing off 20 shots to the hosts’ nine, also enjoying 65.7% possession and playing almost as many passes in the final third (235) as Newcastle did overall (261). ‘Spursy’ indeed.

The North London Derby is a fixture in which Tottenham have struggled lately, losing five of their last seven Premier League meetings with Arsenal (one win and one draw).

That is more defeats than they suffered in their previous 16 against their rivals (six wins, six draws and four defeats).

These fixtures have so often been an acid test of Spurs’ resilience, and they must improve their defending for a matchup that has not featured many clean sheets lately.

Arsenal versus Tottenham has seen both teams score more often than any other fixture in Premier League history (43 times), while it is also the fixture to see the team who scored first fail to win more often than any other (29 times, 19 draws and 10 losses).

Can Gunners replace Rice?

There was much for Mikel Arteta to be frustrated about as Arsenal dropped their first points of the campaign last time out, squandering a 1-0 lead in a 1-1 draw with Brighton.

But it could be that the sending-off of Rice, who received a second yellow card for kicking the ball away early in the second half, proves more of an inconvenience than the result.

The first red card of Rice’s Premier League career – coming on his 245th appearance in the competition – has handed Arteta a major selection dilemma in the engine room.

Rice started 37 of the Gunners’ 38 Premier League games last season, appearing as a substitute in the other. It is often said that availability is the best ability, and Rice’s 3,230 Premier League minutes in 2023-24 were only bettered by eight other outfielders – team-mate William Saliba (with a full 3,420) among them.

With Rice patrolling the midfield, Arsenal were a picture of control last season, giving up the joint-fourth fewest fast breaks in the Premier League (23) and the joint-fifth fewest shots from fast breaks (20).

Thomas Partey and Jorginho, the men likely to be tasked with holding the fort, will come up against a Spurs side with plenty of pace in transition, and the likes of Son Heung-min, Wilson Odobert and Brennan Johnson will be desperate to exploit his absence.

Tottenham scored three goals from 25 fast breaks in Premier League action last term, finding the net every 8.3 fast breaks on average – only eight teams netted from such situations at a greater frequency.

Rice did much to help Arsenal build the Premier League’s most fearsome defence last term, and they approach Sunday’s game with eight shutout victories in their last 10 away league games (nine wins, one draw).

Elsewhere, captain Martin Odegaard is a doubt after sustaining an injury on international duty with Norway, with their absences potentially handing Spurs a golden opportunity.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Tottenham – Son Heung-min

Tottenham skipper Son has scored eight goals against Arsenal in all competitions. In the history of the fixture, only Harry Kane (14), Emmanuel Adebayor (10) and Bobby Smith (10) have netted more North London Derby goals than the South Korean.

Seven of Son’s North London Derby goals have come in the Premier League, with no other current Spurs player boasting more than two strikes against the Gunners in the competition.

Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

Saka scored home and away goals against Tottenham in the Premier League last season. The only previous Arsenal players to score in three or more consecutive North London Derby appearances in the competition are Emmanuel Adebayor (five between 2006 and 2008) and Robert Pires (four between 2002 and 2004).

Saka has also been involved in more attacking sequences than any other Arsenal player in the Premier League this term (22 – 10 shots, seven chances created and five build-up involvements), scoring once against Wolves on matchday one.