The Numbers Game: Can Chelsea dent title hopes of misfiring Gunners?

Ten matches into the Premier League season, Arsenal’s hopes of ending their long wait for a league title are already in danger.

Last week’s 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United made it just seven points from five games, and they now trail leaders Liverpool by seven points.

Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll on Arteta’s men, and things do not get much easier for them on Sunday, against a Chelsea team currently above them on goal difference.

Enzo Maresca’s Blues fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United last time out, and only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten them since the Italian took over.

We delve into the Opta data to preview Sunday’s headline fixture at Stamford Bridge.

What’s expected?

Given the two sides are only separated on goal difference ahead of Sunday’s match, the Opta supercomputer finds it difficult to split.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 41.2%, giving them a slight edge over their hosts, who are a 33.2% shot.

The likelihood of a draw is rated at 25.6%, but you sense Arsenal need to take all three points after seeing their hopes of winning the title drop to 4.4% in Opta’s season predictions. Chelsea’s own hopes are rated at 0.3%, with City (61.9%) still clear favourites ahead of Liverpool (33.4%).

Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (two draws, six defeats), a 2-0 away win in August 2021. The Gunners have managed three victories in their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (one draw) – as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 visits (seven draws, 10 defeats).

Arsenal have also won their last six Premier League London derby matches by an aggregate score of 22-3, winning six of those matches by five or more goals.

One such occasion was a 5-0 rout of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium last April, their biggest-ever margin of victory against the Blues in all competitions.

Blues eye statement victory

When the Premier League fixture list was drawn up, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan may have struggled to visualise the Blues sitting ahead of Arsenal in the table after 10 games.

But Maresca’s side have shown promising signs in the early stages of his tenure. Chelsea’s last two Premier League defeats this season have come against last season’s top three teams – 0-5 versus Arsenal in April, 0-2 versus City in August and 1-2 against Liverpool in October.

They are unbeaten in their last 21 matches against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven while scoring 57 goals in total across those games.

The future looks bright for Chelsea, who fielded a starting lineup with an average age of 23 years and 96 days at Old Trafford last week – their youngest-ever XI for a Premier League match against Manchester United.

However, they are still waiting on a first statement win under Maresca, and getting one over on the Gunners would earn him plenty of goodwill among the fans.

Their chances could be decided by the fitness of Cole Palmer, who is an injury doubt after suffering a knock against United.

He opened the scoring when the Blues last welcomed Arsenal to west London for a 2-2 draw last October, scoring his first Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge.

Since then, he has more home goals in the competition than any other player (21), also leading the way for goal involvements (12 – seven goals, five assists, alongside Mohamed Salah) and open-play chances created in 2024-25.

Can fit-again Odegaard get Gunners firing?

Last season, Arsenal won 42 of their 89 Premier League points on their travels, taking nine points from five matches at the homes of their Big Six rivals.

This campaign, however, their failure to hit top form on the road has threatened to end their latest title tilt before it truly got going.

Arsenal have collected seven points from five away matches this term, the same amount as Brighton and fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, City and Aston Villa (all 10).

While Arteta has long preached the importance of control, Arsenal have simply not been good enough going forward in those matches. They have attempted just 37 shots on the road in the Premier League this season (7.4 per game), with only Brentford (seven) averaging fewer per away match across the entire division.

The fact Arsenal played significant amounts of time at Manchester City and Bournemouth with a numerical disadvantage likely plays a part, but the fact five teams have attempted at least twice as many shots on the road does not make for good reading (Manchester City 90, Tottenham 83, Crystal Palace 79, Bournemouth 78 and Manchester United 74).

Martin Odegaard’s return to training after two months out with an ankle injury is a major boost, with the Norwegian having led all players in the Premier League for expected assists (11.17 xA) and chances created from open play (88) last season.

Arsenal have actually outperformed their underlying attacking metrics this campaign, netting 17 league goals from 15.75 expected goals (xG), so their finishing does not appear to be an issue. The fact they rank eighth in the league for xG does, however, suggest chance creation is a problem.

Arteta will hope Odegaard’s return can make the difference, or a title challenge may prove a bridge too far. The last time they lost three successive away Premier League games was in December 2021, and they went on to miss out on a top-four finish that season.

The Norwegian was a late substitute as they were beaten 1-0 by Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday. They have now lost three of their last six games in all competitions, as many as their previous 32 beforehand.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson

Since the start of last season, Chelsea striker Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, two assists).

All of his 12 involvements have come in his last nine such appearances, and he already has six Premier League goals this term.

Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

Saka has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (seven).

He has also either scored (once) or assisted (twice) a goal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with Sergio Aguero (2013 to 2017) and Javier Hernandez (2012 to 2018) the only visiting players to do so in four consecutive appearances.