The Numbers Game: Can Preston cause FA Cup upset?

Preston North End and Aston Villa meet in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup on Sunday with a trip to Wembley Stadium up for grabs.

Preston are the only lower-league side left in the tournament and had managed to avoid meeting a Premier League club up until now.

They have endured an up-and-down campaign in the Championship, sitting 14th in the table, but they could add some gloss to their season by reaching the FA Cup semi-finals for the first time since 1963-64.

Villa, meanwhile, sit 24 places above their opponents in the pyramid, and while they are not favourites for the competition with seven-time champions Manchester City still in the mix, they are given a strong chance.

Unai Emery’s side have proven their worth in the Champions League this season, and they are also competing for a top-four finish in the tightly packed Premier League table.

With a four-match winning streak under their belts coming into this game, they will feel confident of their chances of reaching a first FA Cup semi-final in 10 years.

Here, we dive into some of the key numbers ahead of Sunday’s clash.

FA Cup quarter-final week is HERE. #pnefc pic.twitter.com/2o0fLXwCDo

— Preston North End FC (@pnefc) March 24, 2025

What’s expected?

This is the first meeting between Preston and Villa since December 2018 – a 1-1 draw at Deepdale in the Championship.

In fact, their last three matches have all ended level, which both sides will likely want to avoid this weekend, as extra time, and possibly penalties, would follow.

Preston have won just one of their last 15 meetings with Villa in all competitions (D9 L5), with that sole victory coming at home in the Championship in October 2016 (2-0).

Both Preston and Villa have progressed from three of the six previous FA Cup ties between the sides, with this the first such meeting since a 1-0 win for the Villans in January 1967.

And it is the visitors that are expected to come out on top in this one, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 65.9% chance of victory in 90 minutes.

Meanwhile, Preston are given just a 15.6% chance of a win without the need for extra time, while there is an 18.4% chance of a fourth consecutive draw in this fixture.

Home comforts

Preston will draw attention in this round as the only survivors from outside the Premier League, which also puts the biggest chance of an upset firmly in their hands.

They have already beaten Charlton Athletic, Wycombe Wanderers and Burnley to reach this stage, but Villa pose a different challenge.

Preston’s problem for much of this season has been too many draws, with 17 in their 38 Championship games so far, leaving them sitting in the lower half of the table.

One thing that has been going their way, though, is a strong record at Deepdale, which they will hope gives them an edge this weekend.

They are unbeaten in their last 15 games across all competitions at home (W6 D9) and have not conceded more than one goal in any match during this run, conceding just nine overall.

Their comfortable home win over Burnley in the fifth round was a highlight of this run as they ruthlessly halted the Clarets’ streak of nine consecutive clean sheets while making it through to the quarter-finals for the first time in 59 years.

Their last quarter-final tie in 1965-66 saw them lose to Manchester United, meaning they are bidding to reach a first semi-final since 1963-64, when they made it to the final before suffering defeat to West Ham.

Preston have not had their hands on the FA Cup since 1938 and have not had a reputation as giant-killers in recent years.

The Lilywhites have lost 18 of their last 19 FA Cup games against top-flight opponents, with the only exception during this run being a 4-1 win at Derby County in the 2007-08 fourth round.

However, Preston did knock Fulham out of this season’s EFL Cup with a stunning penalty shoot-out win that saw 34 kicks taken, but they fell to Arsenal in the following round.

Villa looking for away spark

With a Champions League quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain also on the horizon for Villa, these are exciting times for the fans.

The FA Cup has been tipped as their best chance to end their 29-year wait for silverware since winning the EFL Cup in 1996, but not since 1957 have they triumphed in this competition.

Villa have shown their credentials in the FA Cup, beating West Ham, Tottenham and Cardiff City comprehensively on home soil, having 57 shots in total across those matches, with 22 of those attempts hitting the target.

However, Villa have won just one of their last eight away games in the FA Cup (D2 L5), beating Middlesbrough 1-0 in last season’s third round. They have also lost nine of their last 15 matches on the road in all competitions.

It is a problem Emery will be determined to solve, especially considering Preston’s unbeaten streak at home.

This is Villa’s first appearance in the last eight since 2014-15, a season where they suffered heartbreak in the final with defeat to Arsenal under Tim Sherwood, but Villa have historically done well when reaching this stage of the tournament.

They have won each of their last four matches at this stage, beating West Brom 2-0 en route to the final 10 years ago.

Villa won each of their last four matches before the international break, too, conceding just once in a much-welcomed confidence boost ahead of this season’s run-in.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Preston North End – Robbie Brady

Brady netted his first career FA Cup goal on his 13th appearance in the competition against former club Burnley.

It was also his first goal for Preston since February 2024, when he struck against Blackburn Rovers in the Championship.

He scored with his only shot on target in that match but also made the most passes in the final third (15) and put in the most crosses (five) of any Preston player.

Aston Villa – Marco Asensio

Asensio has been involved in nine goals (six goals, three assists) in his last seven starts in his league’s primary cup competition (Copa del Rey, Coupe de France and FA Cup).

He netted both of Villa’s goals in their 2-0 win over Cardiff in the fifth round and has seven goals across all competitions for Emery’s side.

Asensio has also scored five of the seven ‘big’ chances that have fallen to him since making his Villa debut in February.