The Numbers Game: Can Tottenham get back on track against Chelsea?

When Brennan Johnson tucked in Tottenham’s fourth in their demolition of Manchester City a couple of weeks ago, few would have expected the pressure would soon be mounting on Ange Postecoglou.

Yet after Thursday’s tame performance in a 1-0 defeat at Bournemouth, the Australian faced jeers from a section of the travelling Spurs fans at the Vitality Stadium.

Spurs are now winless in their last three games in all competitions, having drawn against Roma in the Europa League and then Fulham in the Premier League. Before that stunning win at Man City, Tottenham also slipped to a 2-1 home loss to Ipswich Town.

Tottenham are back at home on Sunday, but they will go up against one of the Premier League’s form teams.

Enzo Maresca declared that “Chelsea are back” after a 5-1 win at bottom-of-the-league Southampton moved the Blues into second on Wednesday, seven points behind leaders Liverpool.

Will Chelsea make it four top-flight wins on the spin, or can Spurs get back on track?

7 – In their 14 Premier League games this season, Tottenham have averaged 2.3 pts/game in their lowest seven for possession (16 points), compared to 0.6 pts/game in their highest seven for possession (4 points). Style. pic.twitter.com/IbAMLXlIJ5

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 6, 2024

What’s expected?

Chelsea are made the favourites by the Opta supercomputer, though the model expects a hard-fought encounter.

The Blues are given a win probability of 43.2%, while Tottenham came out on top in 32.7% of the data-led simulations. There is a 24.1% chance of a draw.

Tottenham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games against Chelsea (D2 L8), picking up a 2-0 home win in February 2023.

After a run of just two wins in 13 Premier League away games against Tottenham between 2006 and 2018 (D5 L6), Chelsea have won four of their last five visits to Spurs (L1).

Spurs were unbeaten in their first four Premier League London derbies under Postecoglou (W2 D2), but have lost seven of their last 13 (W4 D2). Five of their six London derby wins under the former Celtic boss have been at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, however.

Chelsea have won 35 Premier League games and scored 116 Premier League goals against Tottenham, more than they have against any other opponent. It’s also the most goals Spurs have conceded against a side, while they have only lost more times to Manchester United (39).

The Blues have also won five of their seven games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in all competitions (D1 L1), the most wins any visiting side has picked up at the ground since Spurs moved there in 2019.

Hot and cold

Spurs’ inconsistency this season is why they are 10th heading into the weekend. Despite the unrest from some fans, Postecoglou will surely point to the fact that they are only three points off fifth-place Brighton.

Postecoglou did perhaps not help himself by insisting he always wins a trophy in his second season at a club, but Spurs are still in the EFL Cup and are well placed in the Europa League. A top-four finish in the Premier League is unlikely but is far from out of sight.

Only two teams – Chelsea (31) and Liverpool (29) – have scored more Premier League goals than Spurs this season, but their issues have come at the other end of the pitch, by and large.