The Numbers Game: Can Van Nistelrooy get Man Utd back on track?

Erik ten Hag seemed doomed at Manchester United and the period after winning the FA Cup became, as expected, a stay of execution.

United sacked the Dutchman on Monday, placing his compatriot – and club great – Ruud van Nistelrooy in temporary charge.

They have moved swiftly to try and appoint a permanent successor, though, with Ruben Amorim of Sporting CP the target.

Amorim has promised to provide clarity over his future after Sporting’s league game on Friday, but it does seem certain that Van Nistelrooy – who oversaw a 5-2 win over Leicester City in the EFL Cup on Wednesday – will be in charge for the visit of in-form Chelsea on Sunday.

United’s two Premier League matches at Old Trafford against other Big Six sides this season did not go well for Ten Hag, with the Red Devils beaten 3-0 by both Liverpool and Tottenham.

But will it be different now he has gone?

What’s expected?

United are unbeaten in their last 11 home league games against Chelsea (W5 D6) and are looking to win three in a row against the Blues at Old Trafford for the first time since January 1957.

But United have picked up just 11 points after nine Premier League matches this season (W3 D2 L4), which is their second-fewest ever total at this stage – only in 2019-20 did they have fewer points at this point (10).

They have only lost four of their opening nine Premier League games on two occasions, with both coming in the last two seasons under Ten Hag.

These sides last met in April, with Chelsea coming from behind to win a thriller 4-3 at Stamford Bridge. The Blues last won consecutive league meetings with the Red Devils in March 2011 (a run of three).

United vs Chelsea is the most drawn fixture in Premier League history, with 26 of the previous 64 meetings between the sides finishing level and the Opta supercomputer is forecasting a close encounter this time.

In 37.8% of the model’s simulations, United came out on top. Chelsea were the winners in 37.3%, with the probability of a draw coming in at 24.9%.

A new era

Ten Hag lost 32% of his Premier League games in charge of United (27/85), the joint-highest percentage along with David Moyes (11/34).

Seven of his 27 defeats, meanwhile, came via stoppage-time winners, the highest percentage (26%) of any manager to lose 20+ games in Premier League history.

While Amorim looks likely to come in soon, this is a chance for Van Nistelrooy to get a much-needed feel-good factor back at Old Trafford. United are down in 14th, so they could do with a win.

Their five-goal haul in midweek was a timely boost, given that finishing chances has been such a big issue.

Only Southampton and Crystal Palace (six each) have scored fewer Premier League goals this season than United (eight).

United have underperformed their expected goals by 6.8 (xG of 14.8), the worst differential of any side in 2024-25. Since 2022-23, only Everton (-26) have underperformed their xG by more than United (-17-9 – 123 goals from an xG of 140.9).

All the young Blues

Scoring goals has not been an issue for Chelsea under Enzo Maresca.

The Blues have scored 19 goals in the league this term, which is a tally bettered only by league leaders Manchester City. Chelsea have also accumulated the third-highest xG in the league (17.3), behind Tottenham (17.7) and City (18.5).

But in their last away game in the league, Chelsea struggled to click into gear in attack and lost 2-1 to Liverpool.

Arne Slot’s team are a step above United in terms of quality, but Maresca will want his side to take the game to their opponents at Old Trafford.

Maresca has gone with youth this season, so a fearless approach that has mostly been present in the league is perhaps no surprise.

Chelsea have named the youngest average starting XI in the Premier League this season (23 years, 206 days). In their 2-1 win over Newcastle, they became just the second team in Premier League history to not name a single outfield player aged 25+ in their starting XI for a match, after Aston Villa who did so in two games in 2013.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Man Utd – Bruno Fernandes

Against Leicester, Fernandes recorded his 150th and 151st goal involvements for Manchester United, becoming the seventh player overall to do so in Europe’s big five leagues in all competitions since his debut and first midfielder to do so.

Chelsea – Cole Palmer

Palmer has been directly involved in 33 Premier League goals for Chelsea in 2024 (21 goals, 12 assists). Only two players have had more goals and assists in a year for the Blues: Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink in 2001 (25 goals, 11 assists) and Didier Drogba in 2010 (22 goals, 13 assists).

He scored in both of Chelsea’s Premier League games against United last season, including a hat-trick in a 4-3 win at Stamford Bridge. The only Chelsea players to score in three consecutive Premier League games against them are Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (2000-2001) and Juan Mata (2012-2013).