The Numbers Game: Carsley aims to stake claim for permanent England job

England have made a bright start to life without Gareth Southgate, putting in impressive displays to win both of their Nations League openers against Republic of Ireland and Finland in September.

With a permanent replacement still yet to be announced for the national team, Lee Carsley will again be in the dugout this week aiming to maintain his 100% record.

With the aim to gain promotion back to League A, Carsley is set to come up against his toughest test yet given that England are not in the driving seat in their current group.

Greece sit above them in the table, with a superior goal difference and are on a three-match winning streak in all competitions.

But having disappointed in their previous Nations League campaign, England will be determined to put things right and avoid a slip-up in front of the home fans.

Using Opta data, we delve into the key talking points ahead of Thursday’s clash at Wembley.

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— England (@England) October 8, 2024

What’s expected?

The Three Lions put on an attacking show against Ireland and Finland, having a collective total of 38 shots and accumulating 4.3 expected goals (xG) across both matches.

So it is perhaps no surprise that England are favourites going into this one, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 75.1% chance of victory.

Greece, on the other hand, are only given a 10.2% chance of causing an upset, while the likelihood of getting a draw sits at 14.6%.

History is certainly on England’s side as they have never lost any of their nine meetings with Greece in all competitions (W7 D2), keeping a clean sheet in seven of those matches.

Greece have, however, drawn their last two competitive away matches against England, most recently 2-2 in a World Cup qualifier in October 2001. They led that match twice before David Beckham’s famous 90th-minute free-kick sent the Three Lions to the 2002 World Cup.

Staking his claim

Carsley isn’t keen to answer questions about his long-term future with England, but he is certainly doing his chances of getting the full-time job no harm.

In fact, he is aiming to be the first England manager to win his first three competitive matches in charge since Fabio Capello in October 2008. If the team can keep another clean sheet, he will be the first ever to do so without conceding.

The interim manager also has some familiar faces available again after illness and injury prevented Phil Foden, Cole Palmer and Jude Bellingham from linking up with the squad last time around.

Palmer has started the Premier League season in scintillating form, with six goals to his name already.

Since his Chelsea debut last September, he has been involved in more goals in the competition than any other player (44 – 28 goals, 16 assists), and he is surely pushing for just his third England start.

Carsley could go with Bellingham for this game though, which would move him outright second for the most England appearances before turning 22 (currently 36, level with Marcus Rashford), after Wayne Rooney (40).

While England’s attack is often the main focus, Carsley’s defensive record is nothing to be dismissed. At the 2023 U21 Euros, his side did not concede a single goal, and he has carried that record into the senior team, albeit only facing eight shots across the first two matches.

Kyle Walker provides a welcome boost at the back as he returns to the squad and, if he is given the nod at right-back in this game, he will have made the joint-fifth most appearances for England at Wembley (currently 37).

He would have to unseat Trent Alexander-Arnold for that to happen, with the Liverpool right-back having created five chances against Finland. That is the third time he has created five or more chances in an England game since the start of 2019, with no other player doing so on more than one occasion.

Top of the pile

England may have won 16 of their last 21 competitive outings on home soil (D2 L3), including each of the last five, but Greece will certainly be no pushovers.

After three seasons in League C, they managed to gain promotion and have taken to their new league with consecutive wins to top the table.

Since the inaugural Nations League in 2018-19, no team has won more games in the competition than Greece (W13 D3 L4).

They also boast the best defensive record in the tournament’s history, conceding the fewest goals (eight) and keeping the most clean sheets (14).

Greece are, however, winless in their last 12 matches against nations in the top five of the FIFA rankings (D6 L6) – a run that stretches back to a 1-0 win over France en route to their Euro 2004 title.

Having drawn 2-2 against France in November 2023 – their most recent fixture against any team currently in the top five – there is a small body of evidence of their ability to compete against the best.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

England – Harry Kane

England captain Harry Kane has scored 26 goals in 26 competitive home appearances for the Three Lions, scoring in each of his last six such outings (nine goals).

Only Steve Bloomer (1895-1899) and Wayne Rooney (2012-2015) have ever scored in seven straight competitive home games for the nation. Having scored twice against Finland last time out in the Nations League, he will be keen to keep his run going.

Greece – Fotis Ioannidis

Only Slovenia’s Benjamin Sesko (four) scored more goals than Fotis Ioannidis (three) across the opening two matchdays of the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League.

He has also scored five goals in his last six international appearances. But Ioannidis is a major doubt for this fixture, having hobbled off just before half-time for Panathinaikos against Olympiacos on Sunday.