The Numbers Game: England out to book last-16 spot at Euro 2024

England know that the last 16 of Euro 2024 is within touching distance as they head into a reunion with Denmark.

The Three Lions beat the Danes in the semi-finals at Euro 2020, coming from behind to win 2-1 after extra time.

Harry Kane was England’s hero as he converted a penalty winner, though spot-kicks would of course go on to prove to be their downfall in the final against Italy.

There is less on the line when England face Denmark again on Thursday, though Gareth Southgate’s team will progress to the knockout stage should they win.

Here, we use Opta data to preview the Group C clash.

Talking of fixtures… Denmark next up for England! #ThreeLions | @NuffieldHealth pic.twitter.com/R7sQWwLwQ9

— England (@England) June 18, 2024

What’s expected?

England are forecasted to win this one, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a 54.5 per cent chance of getting the job done in Frankfurt.

Denmark are sure to be no pushovers, though, and have a 20.6 per cent win likelihood, with the draw threat at 25 per cent.

This will be the fourth encounter between Denmark and England at a major tournament. Three of those will have come at the Euros, and one at the 2002 World Cup.

Denmark won none of the previous three meetings (D1 L2), scoring only one goal in the process, Mikkel Damsgaard’s free-kick in the semi-final of Euro 2020.

There have only been five goals scored in the last four meetings between Denmark (two) and England (three) in all competitions.

Meanwhile, the Three Lions only had 12 touches in Serbia’s box in their 1-0 win on MD1, their lowest total of touches in the opposition box in a European Championship game since 2012 against Ukraine (also 12).

Indeed, the England v Serbia match saw only 11 shots (five for England, six for Serbia) – that tally is the lowest on record in a European Championship match, fewer than every one of the other 322 matches in the competition since 1980.

England have also kept a clean sheet in each of their last five group-stage matches at the European Championship finals, the longest such run in the competition’s history.

So, this game is probably not one to expect too many goals in.

Bellingham a safe bet but can Foden and Kane flourish?

Jude Bellingham came into Euro 2024 with the pressure and hype ramped right up. He is the face of this England squad, and there is an onus on him to deliver.

Well, he started on the right foot, scoring in the 13th minute on Sunday to seal that 1-0 victory over Serbia.

Bellingham displayed the kind of chance-sniffing instinct he has demonstrated so brilliantly during his first season at Real Madrid, getting on the end of Bukayo Saka’s deflected cross and powering home with his head.

Having become the first player to play at two European Championship tournaments before the age of 21, he is also the second England player to score at two major tournaments before turning 21 (also scored vs Iran at the 2022 World Cup), along with Michael Owen, who scored at the 1998 World Cup and Euro 2000.

Bellingham was crucial in every aspect against Serbia. He led England for touches (93), while only Declan Rice (81) and Kyle Walker (77) attempted more passes than the 20-year-old, who also competed in a team-leading 16 duels, winning 10 of them, and was successful with two of his three tackles.

Southgate’s system seems designed to allow Bellingham to flourish, though has that come at the expense of Phil Foden?

The Manchester City star struggled when he did find space against Serbia, though there is perhaps a case that the Premier League Player of the Year is being shoehorned in out of position, too.

Kane, meanwhile, had just two touches in the opening 45 minutes, before finishing with 24 – exactly half that of Jordan Pickford and the lowest of any England outfielder who started the match. The Bayern Munich striker did have a header tipped onto the crossbar, but that was his only chance of the game. Southgate needs to get him more service.

England average 1.9 goals per game under Southgate at major tournaments, the best ratio of any Three Lions boss, but there could be so much more to come from this star-studded attack.

Christian the Great (Dane)

Christian Eriksen scored his maiden goal at the European Championship in Denmark’s 1-1 draw with Slovenia.

At 32 years and 123 days old, he became the oldest Dane to score at the Euros and oldest at a major tournament since 33-year-old Jon Dahl Tomasson at the 2010 World Cup.

It was a clever run and deft finish from the Manchester United playmaker, who created seven chances from set-pieces in the match, the most by a player in a European Championship fixture since Gary McAllister in 1992 for Scotland against Germany (eight).

Getting Eriksen into dangerous positions has to be the gameplan for Kasper Hjulmand’s team, who completed 583 passes and enjoyed an 89 per cent passing accuracy against Slovenia, both record highs for the Danes that Opta has on record (since 1980) at the European Championship.

Despite their run to the last four three years ago, Denmark have won just one of their last six group stage games at the Euros (D1 L4), beating Russia 4-1 at Euro 2020 to ensure qualification to the round of 16.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Denmark – Rasmus Hojlund

Eriksen will be the one England have to stop influencing the match in midfield, but John Stones and Marc Guehi – should they start – will have to be on high alert to keep Man United’s Hojlund under wraps, too.

He only had one shot against Slovenia, which he did get on target, but he is a quality finisher and can certainly do some damage.

England – Phil Foden

Foden created just one chance in a subdued performance against Serbia, but there can be no doubting his quality.

Get him more involved, and in fairness, Foden has to sharpen up when he does get on the ball, and England will surely have far too much for Denmark’s defence.