The Numbers Game: France face Mbappe conundrum ahead of Netherlands test

Both the Netherlands and France made winning, if not entirely convincing, starts at Euro 2024.

On Friday, they face off in a heavyweight clash that could go some way to deciding who tops Group D.

Ronald Koeman’s Oranje had Wout Weghorst to thank as they fought back to beat Poland 2-1 in their opening match, and they will hope the potential absence of Kylian Mbappe gives them the upper hand in Leipzig.

Mbappe’s availability is “uncertain” after he suffered a broken nose during Les Bleus’ nervy 1-0 victory over Austria, with the forward set to be fitted with a protective mask ahead of a potential return.

How will the tournament favourites cope if Mbappe does miss out? Here, we delve into the Opta data to preview Friday’s game.

Des idées de masques ?

— Kylian Mbappé (@KMbappe) June 17, 2024

What’s expected?

Despite the question marks over Mbappe’s availability, France are favourites to make it two wins from two games.

The Opta supercomputer gives them a 52.3 per cent chance of victory to the Netherlands’ 24.4 per cent, with 23.3 per cent of simulations finishing level.

This will be the fourth time the teams have faced off at the Euros. France triumphed on penalties in the 1996 quarter-finals, but the Netherlands have since won two group-stage encounters, 3-2 in 2000 and 4-1 in 2008.

France have, however, won seven of their last eight matches against the Oranje in all competitions, the exception being a 2-0 defeat in the UEFA Nations League in November 2018.

100 – France recorded their 100th win under Didier Deschamps this evening (D30 L24), by far their best total with the same coach (41 with Michel Hidalgo and Raymond Domenech). Boss. #AUTFRA pic.twitter.com/eIYVhN8cc4

— OptaJean (@OptaJean) June 17, 2024

If recent history is anything to go by, we should expect to get a victor. Only four of the previous 30 matches between the teams have ended in a draw, with France posting 15 victories to the Netherlands’ 11.

Excluding penalty shoot-outs, the Oranje have only lost one of their last 17 major tournament matches (World Cup/Euros), going down 2-0 to Czechia at Euro 2020 (12 wins, four draws).

They lost four successive games before this run began – all three group-stage matches at Euro 2012 and the 2010 World Cup final versus Spain.

France, meanwhile, could win their opening two games at a European Championships for the fourth time. On each of the previous occasions on which they accomplished that feat, they went on to reach the final (1984, 2000 and 2016).

If in doubt, get Wout out

Standing at six-foot-six and still on Burnley’s books after loan spells with Besiktas, Manchester United and Hoffenheim, Weghorst may not be the personification of Johan Cruyff’s ‘total football’ ideals.

However, he has a real knack for being in the right place at the right time for his national team.

Weghorst’s winner against Poland came with his first touch after coming on as an 81st-minute substitute and was his fourth goal at a major tournament (World Cup/Euros).

Three of those strikes have come as a substitute, the most goals any Oranje player has scored off the bench at tournaments.

He also has seven goals in his last 11 international appearances overall, tying Cody Gakpo and Calvin Stengs as the Netherlands’ leading scorers in Euro 2024 qualifying with three.

He ranked eighth among all players for touches in the opposition box during qualifying (47), with six of those to beat him having played more than his 517 minutes.

Memphis Depay started up front against Poland and flattered to deceive, failing to hit the target with any of his four shots. While he is likely to keep his place in Koeman’s lineup on Friday, expect Weghorst to be introduced earlier if Depay produces a similar display.

Didier Deschamps took some time to settle on Arsenal’s William Saliba as the ideal centre-back partner for Dayot Upamecano, and the France duo may need to be prepared for an aerial bombardment. It may not be total football, but it could be effective.

Poland 1-2 Netherlands

When in doubt, get the big man on. Wout Weghorst scores just two minutes after being subbed on to win the game for the Netherlands.#POLNED #Euro2024 pic.twitter.com/Hg8zHdJVey

— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) June 16, 2024

Mbappe’s absence a chance for Giroud?

France, meanwhile, are facing up to the scenario they never wished to contemplate – having to cope without Mbappe.

After colliding with the shoulder of Austria defender Kevin Danso on matchday one, Mbappe is a major doubt for Friday’s game. On Wednesday, the president of the France Football Federation, Philippe Diallo, said it was “too soon to know” if he will play again at this tournament.

The Netherlands will certainly be breathing a sigh of relief, having seen Mbappe score six times in five career matches against them, including his first senior international goal in August 2017. Against no other nation has Real Madrid’s newest Galactico netted more often.

However, Mbappe did attempt four shots without scoring against Austria, taking his total number of shots without scoring at the Euros to 18, the most of any Frenchman since 1980.

Mbappe started centrally against Austria but often drifted out to the left flank, with Ousmane Dembele stationed wide on the right. Randal Kolo Muani could come in to play a similar role, or Olivier Giroud could provide more of a traditional focal point.

Giroud’s 57 international goals put him top of Les Bleus’ all-time scoring charts, six clear of Thierry Henry. Just eight of those have come at major tournaments (one at the 2014 World Cup, three at Euro 2016, four at the 2022 World Cup), but the former Arsenal and Chelsea man has long been a crucial foil for his more mobile team-mates.

France have won 71.9 per cent of their games with Giroud in the starting lineup under Deschamps (64/89), compared to 57.3 per cent without him (43/75).

The 37-year-old, who has 16 headed goals for his country, will also have been licking his lips at the sight of the Netherlands’ set-piece defending against Poland, as Adam Buksa took advantage of some lax marking to head home unopposed from a corner.

The last three goals conceded by Koeman’s team have now come from corners.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Netherlands – Cody Gakpo

Having netted the Netherlands’ equaliser in their opening match, Gakpo has scored on all four of his group-stage starts at major tournaments (World Cup/Euros).

In all competitions, the Liverpool forward has six goal involvements in his last eight appearances on the international stage (four goals, two assists).

Only Nathan Ake, with four, bettered his three chances created against Poland, while he also completed all five of his dribbles and won 15 of his total of 18 duels contested – both team-high figures.

4 – Cody Gakpo has scored in each of his last four group stage games at the European Championships and World Cup, becoming the third European player to do so this century, after Cristiano Ronaldo and Álvaro Morata. Elite. #EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/Zjg1D5dA6E

— OptaJohan (@OptaJohan) June 16, 2024

France – Antoine Griezmann

With Mbappe likely to miss out, France need another of their attacking stars to step up.

Since the start of Euro 2016, Griezmann has more goal involvements at major tournaments (18 – 11 goals and seven assists) than any other European player (World Cup/Euros).

Against Austria, no player on the pitch bettered Griezmann’s two chances created, while he also attempted as many crosses (six) as all of his team-mates combined.

In Mbappe’s absence, he could get the freedom to roam into more advanced areas. He only managed two touches in the opposition box against Austria, though his two shots were worth a game-high 0.84 expected goals (xG).