The Numbers Game: Leaders Barcelona out to deny Madrid share of LaLiga record

With a respective seven and four-point gap having already developed between first and second and their nearest challengers, Barcelona and Real Madrid look likely to go head-to-head to rule LaLiga once again this season.

After the two sides lit up the Champions League in midweek – Madrid recovering to beat Borussia Dortmund 5-2, while Barcelona trounced Bayern Munich 4-1 – Saturday’s Clasico is the must-watch fixture in the European calendar this week.

Hansi Flick’s side lead the way with nine wins from his first 10 league games in charge, while Madrid have one of two unbeaten records remaining in the division, alongside neighbours Atletico Madrid.

Carlo Ancelotti’s reigning Spanish and European champions have an opportunity not only to knock Barca off the top this weekend, but to earn a slice of history.

They are one game away from matching the longest unbeaten run in the history of LaLiga, recorded by Ernesto Valverde’s Barcelona (43) between 2017 and 2018.

Can Los Blancos match their great rivals’ feat at the Santiago Bernabeu? Here, we dive into the Opta data to preview the first Clasico of the campaign.

What’s expected?

Despite Barcelona making a flying start to Flick’s reign, it is Madrid who are made favourites by the Opta supercomputer at home.

Ancelotti’s team were victorious in 56% of the 10,000 match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, with Barca winning 21.3% and 22.7% finishing all square.

Madrid have an excellent record versus Barca lately, winning each of their last four matches against them in all competitions. They could now record five straight victories in El Clasico for just the second time in the last 59 years, having done so between 2020 and 2022.

Ancelotti, meanwhile, could become just the third coach to win five or more successive Clasicos in the history of the fixture, after Miguel Munoz between 1962 and 1965 (seven) and Pep Guardiola between 2008 and 2010 (five).

Jude Bellingham struck dramatic winners in both league fixtures between these great rivals last season – a 2-1 triumph in Catalonia last October and a 3-2 victory in Madrid in April.

On their own turf, Madrid have won four of their last five meetings with Barca (one defeat), winning each of their last two.

They have not won three straight home Clasicos in the competition since they enjoyed a run of four consecutive wins between 1988 and 1991, a period in which they won LaLiga three times in four campaigns.

History beckons for Los Blancos

Incredibly, Madrid have not been beaten in league action since September 25 last year, when they went down 3-1 to rivals Atletico.

Their unbeaten run in LaLiga now stands at 42 matches, with 31 wins and 11 draws in that timeframe.

Saturday’s game offers them the chance to draw level with the mark brought up by Valverde’s Barca between April 2017 and May 2018 (34 wins, nine draws). With bottom club Valencia their next opponents after this match, they have a great opportunity to snatch that record outright.

While last season’s Clasico hero Bellingham is yet to score in LaLiga this term and has only provided one assist in his six appearances, Madrid have another player with a knack of breaking Barca hearts.

Vinicius Junior has been involved in seven goals in his last four games in El Clasico in all competitions, scoring five goals and laying on two assists.

In total, the Real Madrid forward has scored seven goals in 17 games against Barcelona. They are his second-best goalscoring opponent after Valencia (eight goals).

Vinicius also got Los Blancos’ winner as they overcame Celta Vigo 2-1 in their last league game on Saturday, then scored a wonderful hat-trick in Tuesday’s comeback victory over Dortmund, taking him to 35 goal involvements (20 goals, 15 assists) in his last 35 Champions League starts.

2 – Real Madrid have won a Champions League home game after conceding two goals for the second time, the first time since September 2004 against AS Roma (4-2). Comeback. pic.twitter.com/FixUMcQvaG

— OptaJose (@OptaJose) October 22, 2024

With the Brazilian dovetailing with Bellingham, Rodrygo and Kylian Mbappe, Madrid have the firepower to halt Barca’s brilliant start to life under Flick, and seal their own place in the record books in the process.

Major test for Flick

Flick could hardly have wished for a better start to his tenure at Barca, with a 4-2 defeat at Osasuna last month the only blot on his record in LaLiga.

Last week’s 5-0 rout of Sevilla also took the Blaugrana to 33 goals in 10 league games under Flick. Only Zinedine Zidane has enjoyed a more prolific start through 10 games as a manager in LaLiga this century (34).

Three of the nine players in the big five European Leagues to be involved in 10 or more goals this season, meanwhile, represent Barcelona: Robert Lewandowski (12 goals, two assists), Lamine Yamal (four goals, six assists) and Raphinha (five goals, five assists).

Only three players from those five leagues have at least five goals and five assists this term: Mohamed Salah (five goals, five assists with Liverpool), Cole Palmer (six goals, five assists with Chelsea) and Raphinha.

Flick got one over on his former club in style on Wednesday, with Raphinha’s hat-trick helping them end a run of six straight Champions League meetings with Bayern.

4 – Barcelona have scored four goals against Bayern Munich for the second time in their @ChampionsLeague history, after doing so in April 2009 under Pep Guardiola (4-0).

Comeback. pic.twitter.com/fywgtG1Xga

— OptaJose (@OptaJose) October 23, 2024

If that result was not enough of a statement, Barcelona achieved it with a youthful starting XI with an average age of 24 years and 185 days, their youngest lineup for a Champions League match since December 2011 versus BATE Borisov (23 years, 93 days).

A trip to the Bernabeu, however, will surely represent Flick’s toughest test to date.

Each of the last five Barcelona coaches – Xavi, Ronald Koeman, Quique Setien, Valverde and Luis Enrique – have lost their first competitive Clasico, with Gerardo Martino the last to oversee a victory in his first one (2-1 in 2013). If Flick can buck that trend, it will be advantage Barca in the title race.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Real Madrid – Vinicius Junior

As well as having a fine record in Clasico matches, Vinicius has also been involved in at least one goal in each of his last six matches in LaLiga (four goals, three assists), netting the winner at Celta Vigo last weekend.

The Brazilian is widely considered the favourite to win the Ballon d’Or and last time out against Dortmund, led all players on the pitch for xG (1.26), shots (seven), shots on target (four) and dribbles completed (six), also creating two chances and contesting a joint-high 16 duels.

Barcelona – Lamine Yamal

While Raphinha stole the headlines against Bayern in midweek, his fellow winger Yamal also shone, recording an assist as he became the youngest player to make 10 Champions League starts, aged 17 years and 102 days.

He already has six assists in LaLiga this season, becoming the first Barca player to reach that figure within the opening 10 matchdays since Lionel Messi in 2014-15 (seven).