The Numbers Game: Maresca faces mentor Guardiola in Chelsea bow

Another new season, another new head coach at Stamford Bridge.

And Enzo Maresca could hardly have been handed a tougher assignment as he leads Chelsea in the Premier League for the first time, with champions Manchester City the visitors to SW6 on Sunday.

It has been another busy off-season for the Blues, with the Todd Boehly regime sanctioning a £161million outlay on nine signings, including Pedro Neto and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.

City, on the other hand, have been largely quiet as Guardiola continues to put his faith in the group that delivered an unprecedented fourth straight league crown last season.

As two of English football’s giants prepare to go head-to-head on the opening weekend of the Premier League season, we dive into the best Opta stats to preview Sunday’s clash.

Who will be next? #TheKickOff pic.twitter.com/HaBgIvluNV

— Premier League (@premierleague) August 12, 2024

What’s expected?

It will come as a surprise to nobody to learn City are overwhelming favourites to defend their title in 2024-25, the Opta supercomputer giving them an 83% chance of topping the pile.

The supercomputer is also firmly on their side ahead of matchday one, with simulations of Sunday’s game resulting in City being assigned a 59.6% chance of victory.

City’s last trip to Stamford Bridge resulted in what was surely the game of the 2023-24 season, as Cole Palmer scored a last-gasp penalty in a 4-4 draw last November.

The chances of the points being shared again on Sunday are rated at 20.8%, with Chelsea only triumphant in 19.6% of scenarios.

The Blues are winless in their last six Premier League meetings with City, recording two draws and four defeats since Thomas Tuchel led them to a 2-1 victory at the Etihad Stadium in May 2021.

That result was swiftly followed by another victory in the 2021 Champions League final, but City have since gone unbeaten through nine meetings with Chelsea in all competitions (seven wins, two draws), the joint-longest run without defeat against the Blues in their history (also nine between 1936 and 1949).

This will be the first time Chelsea have opened a top-flight campaign against the reigning champions since 1971-72, when they were beaten 3-0 by Arsenal at Highbury.

City, meanwhile, have made a habit of starting quickly in recent years, winning their opening match in 12 of the last 13 Premier League seasons, the only exception being a 1-0 loss at Tottenham in August 2021.

Maresca thrown in at the deep end

Maresca is set to become the fourth Chelsea boss to face the defending champions in his first Premier League game at the helm, with none of the previous three starting with a win.

Claudio Ranieri oversaw a 3-3 draw with Manchester United in September 2000, Avram Grant’s tenure started with a 2-0 defeat to the Red Devils in September 2007, and Rafael Benitez’s Blues held City to a goalless draw on his November 2012 bow.

Despite leading Leicester City to the Championship title with an impressive haul of 97 points last season, Maresca – who previously served as manager of City’s Elite Development Squad in 2020-21 – was a somewhat left-field appointment by Boehly. Banking some early credit – something Mauricio Pochettino failed to do – could prove crucial.

As a coach straight out of the Guardiola school, Maresca is expected to instil a heavy pressing, possession-based style in West London. The question is how quickly his Chelsea players will take to it.

Preparing for MD1. pic.twitter.com/Vux3jNedAs

— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) August 13, 2024

Pochettino’s Chelsea only lost one of their final 15 Premier League games last season (nine wins, five draws), including winning their last five in a row, yet their players have found themselves on another tactical crash-course in pre-season, which included a 4-2 defeat to City in Columbus, Ohio.

Many members of Chelsea’s bloated first-team squad should be suited to Maresca’s demands, though. The Blues averaged 12.2 pressed sequences per game in the Premier League last season, compared to Leicester’s 11.3 in the Championship under Maresca, also forcing 9.0 high turnovers per 90 minutes to the Foxes’ 7.9.

Sunday’s game may not offer a perfect representation of what is to come under the Italian, though, with City likely to dictate proceedings.

If Maresca is willing to tweak his approach, there could be joy to be had on the counter-attack, and new £51.4million winger Neto could relish coming up against City’s high line.

The former Wolves man travelled 14.53 metres per carry in the Premier League last season, ranking third in the division behind Chiedozie Ogbene (15.13) and Anthony Elanga (14.54).

Only 12 players, meanwhile, managed more assist-ending carries than Neto’s three, despite the jet-heeled winger being limited to just 1,518 Premier League minutes by injury. City will have to be on their toes if he makes his debut.

Will City be without Rodri?

City ended last season by winning nine straight league matches by two goals or more, the longest such run in their Premier League history, with their final three victories all coming against London clubs (4-0 versus Fulham, 2-0 against Tottenham, 3-1 versus West Ham).

While Phil Foden claimed the Premier League’s Player of the Season prize after a series of talismanic performances in the run-in, Guardiola’s side surely could not have done it without Rodri.

Rodri has taken his all-round game to a new level, scoring eight Premier League goals and adding nine assists last season – both career-high figures – before going on to claim Player of the Tournament honours as Spain won Euro 2024.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, City have only lost six of the 102 matches they have played with Rodri in their starting lineup, suffering the same number of defeats in just 18 games without the Spaniard during this span.

In the Premier League last term, they boasted a record of 27 wins, seven draws and no defeats when Rodri appeared, but lost three of four games (one win) when he was absent.

City’s ability to cope without the 28-year-old could be put to the test on Sunday, however. He did not return to training until Wednesday following his Euro 2024 heroics, making it unlikely – though not impossible – that he will play a full part at Stamford Bridge.

Guardiola’s champions did show defensive frailties at times last season, conceding the joint-most goals from fast breaks in the Premier League (seven, alongside Crystal Palace and Brighton and Hove Albion) despite giving up the seventh-fewest fast breaks in total (26).

If Rodri misses out or sees his participation limited on Sunday, City’s competitors will be interested to get a look at their midfield depth.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Chelsea – Cole Palmer

Palmer showed his old club what they were missing last season with his last-gasp penalty at Stamford Bridge, one of 33 Premier League goal involvements (22 goals, 11 assists) he recorded in 2023-24 – more than any other player.

Sixteen of his goals came in home games, the joint-most a Chelsea player has ever netted at Stamford Bridge in a single campaign, alongside Didier Drogba in 2006-07 and Frank Lampard in 2009-10.

With Palmer also making a sizeable impact for England at Euro 2024, including coming off the bench to net in their final defeat to Spain, another productive campaign is expected of him.

Cole Palmer 2033.

— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) August 13, 2024

Manchester City – Erling Haaland

Palmer’s fine debut season did not result in a Golden Boot win, though, with Haaland retaining the prize with 27 Premier League goals in 2023-24.

Haaland has 63 goals in 66 Premier League matches since arriving from Borussia Dortmund in 2022, and if his previous opening-day performances are anything to go by, Chelsea should be fearful.

The Norwegian has started both of his Premier League seasons with a matchday-one brace, scoring twice versus West Ham in 2022-23 and Burnley in 2023-24.

He could become the first player in Premier League history to achieve that feat in three different seasons, let alone three in a row.