The Numbers Game: Messi set for triumphant Argentina send-off in Miami?

The stage is set for what could be Lionel Messi’s international swansong, as Argentina face Colombia in Sunday’s Copa America final in the forward’s new home of Miami.

The Hard Rock Stadium is the venue as Messi and La Albiceleste go in search of a record-breaking 16th Copa America crown, currently level with Uruguay on 15. It would also be a second in a row after they overcame old rivals Brazil in the 2021 final.

Standing in their way, however, are arguably the most impressive team at the tournament in Colombia.

Unbeaten in 28 games – a new national record – and led by a rejuvenated James Rodriguez, who is surely the favourite for Player of the Tournament honours, Los Cafeteros downed a much-fancied Uruguay side with 10 men in the last four and are sure to present a stern test.

Ahead of the showpiece game, we dive into the best Opta data surrounding the two finalists.

One for the ages. pic.twitter.com/EiA8O1iTvK

— CONMEBOL Copa América™️ ENG (@copaamerica_ENG) July 11, 2024

What’s expected?

Argentina began the tournament as favourites, being given a 30.8% chance of securing back-to-back titles for the first time since 1993 by the Opta supercomputer.

The supercomputer is still on their side ahead of the final, giving them a 50.9% chance of winning the match in 90 minutes.

Colombia are assigned a 25.4% chance of victory and a 23.6% chance of taking the game to extra time (which will take place if required after being scrapped for all other knockout matches) and potentially penalties.

Argentina have won their last two Copa America shoot-outs, against Ecuador in this year’s quarter-finals and Colombia in 2021, though they have lost three of their last four finals at the competition on spot-kicks, versus Brazil in 2004 and Chile in both 2015 and 2016.

Overall, Lionel Scaloni’s team are given a 63% chance of lifting the trophy to Colombia’s 37%.

Colombia will be featuring in just their third Copa America final (also 1975 and 2001), becoming the fourth team to reach multiple finals at the competition this century, after Argentina (six), Brazil (four) and Chile (two).

Argentina have now reached the final at six of their last eight major tournaments (World Cups and Copa America). The only exceptions were at the 2018 World Cup and the 2019 Copa, losing to the eventual champions (France and Brazil) in both instances.

Colombia have only won one of their last 12 meetings with Argentina (five draws, six defeats) – a 2-0 group-stage win at the 2019 Copa America. The teams’ last draw led to Colombia losing on penalties in the 2021 Copa quarter-finals, with Davinson Sanchez, Yerry Mina and Edwin Cardona all unsuccessful from 12 yards.

The teams have met on 15 previous occasions in the Copa America, with Argentina recording seven wins to Colombia’s three and the remaining five being drawn.

Meanwhile in NYC…