The Numbers Game: Slot´s Reds face Old Trafford test

Two of the Premier League’s biggest rivals meet at Old Trafford on Sunday, though it is fair to say there has been a gulf in class between these sides, at least over the course of a season, in recent campaigns.

This is, of course, Arne Slot’s first game in charge of Liverpool against United.

None of the Reds’ last nine managers have won their first league meeting with the Red Devils, since Bob Paisley beat them 3-1 in November 1975.

Meanwhile, George Kay is the only Liverpool manager to win his first away league game against United, winning 5-2 at Old Trafford in November 1936.

Will Slot be able to buck that trend on Sunday, putting out a statement regarding Liverpool’s title aspirations in the process?

Ahead of the latest meeting between England’s two most successful clubs, we look at all the best Opta facts surrounding the game.

Up next: We head to Old Trafford #MUNLIV pic.twitter.com/2QVF6CyAuK

— Liverpool FC (@LFC) August 28, 2024

What’s expected?

It will surprise few to hear the Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool favourites for this one, with the Reds given a 48.4% chance of victory.

United, meanwhile, only came out on top in 28.2% of the simulations the model ran. The match was drawn in 23.4% of scenarios.

Liverpool have lost just one of their last six Premier League away games against United (two wins, three draws), while only Manchester City (nine) have won away at Old Trafford more often than the Reds (seven) in the competition’s history. Is it any surprise they are favourites?

United have won just one of their last 12 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (five draws, six losses), beating them 2-1 at Old Trafford in their third game of the 2022-23 campaign.

However, United boss Erik ten Hag has got previous against Slot, having faced him four times in the Eredivisie. Slot’s AZ beat Ten Hag’s Ajax twice in 2019-20 before Ten Hag twice beat Slot’s Feyenoord side in 2021-22.

This will be the first Premier League game between two Dutch coaches since February 2016, when Guus Hiddink’s Chelsea won 2-1 at Ronald Koeman’s Southampton.