The Numbers Game: Ten Hag searches for much-needed turnaround at Villa Park

Manchester United are in desperate need of a Premier League win when they take on Aston Villa on Sunday.

The pressure has piled on Erik ten Hag after last week’s sorry 3-0 loss to Tottenham.

United have lost three of their six league fixtures this season, winning just twice – against Southampton and Fulham – while they have lost their last two home matches in the top flight by an aggregate score of 6-0.

Their tally of seven points is their joint-fewest after six games of any Premier League season (two wins, one draw, three losses), having made identical starts under David Moyes in 2013-14 and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in 2020-21.

They now face another of the league’s top teams when they take on Villa, who are fresh from their Champions League triumph over Bayern Munich and unbeaten in four league matches.

United, meanwhile, were forced to settle for a 3-3 draw at Porto in the Europa League, with Harry Maguire’s late leveller doing little to ease the pressure on Ten Hag.

Here, we crunch the numbers and dive into the Opta insights ahead of Sunday’s clash.

What’s expected?

As far as home defeats in the Manchester rain go, last week’s capitulation against Spurs was as bad as they get.

Ten Hag looked on miserably as United, who were reduced to 10 men when Bruno Fernandes was sent off late in the first half (that red card has now been rescinded), were carved open time and time again.

Spurs generated a huge expected goals (xG) figure of 4.59 on Sunday – the third-highest United have allowed a Premier League opponent since such records began in 2009. Only versus Arsenal in December 2017 (a 3-1 win) and against Man City in October 2011 (a memorable 6-1 loss at Old Trafford), have United given up a greater quality of chances in a Premier League match.

United also saw their opponents have nine big chances – only in five previous games in Premier League history has a team had more big chances in one game (Man City v Watford 2019-20, Man Utd v Sunderland 2012-13, Arsenal v Fulham 2018-19, Arsenal v Stoke City 2015-16, Man City v Crystal Palace 2017-18 – all 10).

Villa, on the other hand, have won both of their Champions League games without conceding a goal, and though Ipswich Town fought back to draw 2-2 with them last weekend, Unai Emery’s team have enjoyed a fine start to the campaign.

They have picked up 13 points in their opening six Premier League matches this season (four wins, one draw, one defeat), their best start to a season since 2008-09 under Martin O’Neill (also 13 points).

As such, it’s no surprise to see Opta’s supercomputer makes Villa the favourites with a 42% win probability, albeit the gap is perhaps not as big as one might expect. United came out on top in 33.2% of the model’s simulations, while the threat of a draw is 24.8%.

And it is worth noting that United have a great record against the Villans.

United have won 40 Premier League games against Villa, with only the Red Devils themselves beating an opponent more often in the competition’s history (41 vs Everton).

Villa have won just one of their last 25 Premier League home games against Manchester United (eight draws, 16 losses), with that victory coming in Emery’s first game in charge of the club in November 2022 (3-1).

Duran’s hungry like a wolf

Forgive the quite abysmal Duran Duran reference, but Villa’s fans are surely going to be pulling out the 1980s hits this season if their super-sub forward Jhon Duran continues to thrive as he is right now.

Duran scored a brilliant lob to see off Bayern in midweek, taking his tally of goals for the season to five in all competitions – all of those have come from the bench. His four league strikes have come from just 2.1 xG.

He has also netted four league goals in his last four league appearances at Villa Park, all as a substitute.

The 20-year-old averages a goal every 43 minutes at Villa Park in the competition, the second-best ratio by a player at a single venue (250+ minutes played there), behind Luis Suarez at Carrow Road (a goal every 38 minutes).

Duran is averaging a goal every 39 minutes this season in the league – in comparison, 10-goal Erling Haaland averages one every 54 minutes.

The Colombian has had just 10 shots in the league this term, so he has a 40% shot-conversion rate, the best rate in the competition of any player to score more than three times.

With such a quality talent in reserve, Villa’s attack will surely be licking their lips if they can get at United’s defence in the same way Spurs did.

Since Emery’s first Premier League game in charge, only Man City (85), Liverpool (84) and Arsenal (81) have picked up more home points than Villa (74).

Among Villa managers to take charge of five or more home top-flight matches, only European Cup-winning boss Tony Barton (70%, won 37/53) has a better home win percentage than Emery (66%, won 23/35).

Leaking like Old Trafford’s roof

United have actually kept successive away clean sheets in the league, winning 3-0 against Southampton and drawing 0-0 with Crystal Palace. They last kept three away clean sheets in a row in March 2021.

However, United have lost eight Premier League matches by a margin of three or more goals under Ten Hag. Since the start of 2022-23, the only current Premier League managers to suffer more 3+ goal defeats are Gary O’Neil and Sean Dyche (nine each).

United so often leave wide open spaces in midfield and huge gaps in defence, with defenders isolated in one-v-ones.

Despite conceding only eight goals, United have an xG against of 11.04 so far in the league this season – that is the fifth-worst total in the league, lower than only the three promoted clubs and Brentford.

That is despite United allowing just 74 shots, which ranks ninth in the top flight. However, United’s average per-shot xGA is 0.14, which is the second-worst in the league, after Brighton (0.17).

Ten Hag has to find a defensive formula that works if United are to get something out of this game.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Aston Villa – Ollie Watkins

While the limelight is on Duran, it is worth mentioning that Watkins has also scored four Premier League goals this term.

Watkins has been involved in 55 goals in 67 Premier League appearances under Emery for Aston Villa (36 goals, 19 assists), with only Erling Haaland (65) and Mohamed Salah (60) scoring or assisting more goals in that time. The former Brentford attacker is looking to score in four games in a row for the first time since April 2023.

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

United will be delighted Fernandes will be available for this game. He was set to miss just his eighth match for the club since his debut in February 2020, with the Red Devils winless in their last four (one draw, three losses) and failing to score in their last three without the Portuguese international in the team.

Fernandes has had 17 shots in the Premier League this season, but is yet to score.

That tally of shots is the most any player who is yet to score this season has had across the entirety of Europe’s top five leagues this season.