The Numbers Game: Under-fire Ten Hag and Postecoglou face off

Having fallen short last term, both Manchester United and Tottenham started the 2024-25 season with Champions League qualification their primary aim.

However, five games into the new campaign, neither side has exactly marked themselves out as the team to beat in the race for a top-four finish.

With just seven points apiece, United and Spurs sit 11th and 10th, respectively, in the early-season standings ahead of their headline clash at Old Trafford on Sunday.

United’s woes deepened as they were held to a Europa League draw by Twente on Wednesday, while Spurs eased the pressure somewhat by beating Qarabag on Thursday.

Both Erik ten Hag and Ange Postecoglou have come under pressure already this season, and should either taste defeat on their return to league action on matchday six, the criticism will only be amplified.

But what should we expect at the Theatre of Dreams, and what does the data say about both teams? Here’s our Opta-powered match preview.

What’s expected?

United have won 24 Premier League home games against Tottenham – only Arsenal have beaten an opponent more often at home in the competition’s history (25 versus Everton).

With that in mind, it is perhaps not a surprise to see the Opta supercomputer make the Red Devils favourites, albeit not comprehensively.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, United were victorious in 41.1%, with Spurs winning 34.6% and the other 24.3% finishing level.

Tottenham are unbeaten in their last three Premier League games against the Red Devils, however, winning one and drawing two after losing four straight against them between 2021 and 2022.

Postecoglou’s team twice fought back to recover a 2-2 draw when they last visited Old Trafford in January, Rodrigo Bentancur and Richarlison cancelling out goals from Rasmus Hojlund and Marcus Rashford.

United have not lost at home to Spurs since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer oversaw a dismal 6-1 defeat in October 2020, winning two and drawing one of their last three home games against them.

Lack of firepower costing United

United’s season to date has been defined by an inability to make the most of their chances in front of goal, and it was the same old story at Crystal Palace last week.

Ten Hag’s side dominated for long periods at Selhurst Park but could not make the breakthrough, failing to take any of their five big chances and seeing their former goalkeeper Dean Henderson make seven saves for Palace in a goalless draw.

With a hamstring injury preventing Hojlund from featuring this season and Bruno Fernandes yet to open his account for 2024-25, United have too often looked toothless.

Their total expected goals (xG) figure of 9.6 for the season is the third-highest in the Premier League, behind only title contenders Manchester City (11.46) and Liverpool (10.1). However, United have only hit the net five times, giving them an xG underperformance of 4.6.

Only Southampton (two goals from 7.1 xG) have posted a larger negative differential in the competition this term, though United have also been unfortunate to face some in-form goalkeepers, with their expected goals on target (xGoT) figure only slightly lower than their xG at 9.08.

How, then, can Ten Hag get his team firing? New arrival Joshua Zirkzee led the line last week but struggled, only attempting one shot and managing three touches in the box. Zirkzee has amassed more xG (2.19) than any other United player this season, despite only starting three of their five league matches.

Marcus Rashford, who replaced him just after the hour mark, did not register a single effort at goal or a touch in the Palace area. Ten Hag’s decision to drop Rashford for that match, just days after declaring the forward was getting back to his best, gave rise to rumours of a rift between the duo, which the Dutchman was forced to describe as “crazy”.

Rashford appears likely to return to the lineup on Sunday, having scored six previous Premier League goals against Spurs – only against Leicester City (eight) has he netted more.

Since Postecoglou joined the club last year, only Newcastle United (53) and Brighton (47) have allowed opponents more fast breaks than Tottenham (44, level with United). In what could be an open, watchable affair, Rashford may have a major role to play.

Ange targets end to away-day struggles

Tottenham responded to back-to-back Premier League defeats with a much-needed 3-1 victory over Brentford last week, with Dominic Solanke, Brennan Johnson and James Maddison netting after Bryan Mbeumo opened the scoring within 23 seconds.

Since the start of last season, only Man City (31) have gained more points from losing positions in the Premier League than Spurs’ 28. It is just as well that Postecoglou’s men showed their powers of recovery in that game, with rumblings of discontent starting to emerge in the early weeks of the season.

Postecoglou’s team needed another fightback to beat Coventry City in the EFL Cup just a few days earlier, after which he said there would be no “easy or quick fix” to make Spurs competitive at the top level.

The Australian is determined to make the “Spursy” tag a thing of the past, but their soft underbelly has continually cost them on the road since he took charge.

They took 14 points from their first six away Premier League games under Postecoglou (four wins, two draws), only to garner just 14 from their next 15 on the road (three wins, five draws, seven defeats).

Among ever-present Premier League teams across the last two seasons, no side has won fewer away games since the start of November 2023 than Spurs (three), with Bournemouth (24), Nottingham Forest (19) and Crystal Palace (15) among the clubs to better their 14 away points won in that span, a figure that puts them level with Everton.

If Tottenham are to contend for a top-four place or better, they simply must improve their away form, starting with Sunday’s clash with a direct rival.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

United captain Bruno Fernandes has had more shots without scoring than any other Premier League player this season (17). Meanwhile, only Southampton’s Cameron Archer (2.3) and Bournemouth’s Evanilson (2) have amassed a higher xG figure without finding the net so far than Fernandes (1.9).

The Portugal international has, however, been involved in at least nine more attacking sequences (30 – 17 shots, six chances created, seven build-ups to a shot) than any of his team-mates this term (Diogo Dalot is second with 21).

Tottenham – Son Heung-min

Son’s involvement in this game has been called into question after appearing to suffer an injury against Qarabag, but Postecoglou was understandably quick to play it down.

The South Korean is likely to be key, having created more chances from open play than any other player in the Premier League this season (13).

Son has also had a hand in five goals in his last seven league appearances against Manchester United, scoring four and assisting one.