The Numbers Game: Will fortune favour the brave as title rivals meet?

Having won an unprecedented fourth straight Premier League title last season, Manchester City have wasted no time in stealing a march on their rivals in 2024-25.

As the only team to register a perfect four wins from four matches, City already boast a two-point lead over their closest challengers, the identity of whom also comes as no surprise.

Such has been City’s brilliance, that amassing 173 points across the last two seasons has not been enough for Arsenal to end their long wait for a Premier League crown.

However, last week’s North London Derby victory over Tottenham saw them display all the hallmarks of potential champions, keeping their fierce rivals at arm’s length in a composed performance as Gabriel Magalhaes’ header made the difference.

But can the Gunners go one step further and do what they could not last season – win at the Etihad Stadium?

Ahead of the biggest game of the season to date, we dive into the Opta data to bring you the best facts and figures surrounding both teams.

What’s expected?

Given City’s fearsome record at home to Arsenal, it comes as no surprise to see the Opta supercomputer make them favourites.

City are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League home games against the Gunners, winning seven and drawing two since a 2-0 defeat back in January 2015.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, City were victorious in 58.6%, with Arsenal only taking the spoils in 19.8% of scenarios.

A repeat of March’s draw between the teams, which was not enough for Arsenal to get over the line in the title race, is assigned a 21.6% likelihood.

Whatever happens, something has to give on Sunday. City have won each of their last 13 Premier League matches, and there have only ever been six cases of a team winning 14 or more in a row.

City – and current boss Pep Guardiola – are responsible for half of those instances, winning 18 straight in 2017, 15 in a row in 2019 and the same amount in 2021.

Arsenal, though, have not trailed at any stage in their last 11 away Premier League matches. They could become the first team in the competition’s history to go 12 straight road games without falling behind, with Aston Villa also enjoying an 11-game run back in 1998.

Haaland the centurion?

Erling Haaland was frustrated as City fired a blank in their midweek Champions League opener versus Inter, going close twice in the first half but failing to bring up his 100th goal for the club.

The Norwegian reached 99 goals in City blue with a brace in last weekend’s comeback win over Brentford, and he has now scored a scarcely believable nine goals in four Premier League games this season.

Eight of those have come in his last three league outings – hat-tricks versus Ipswich Town and West Ham, and a double against Brentford.

In Premier League history, only Luis Suarez has ever scored multiple goals in four straight appearances, netting one hat-trick and three braces in a tremendous run for Liverpool in December 2013.

Another goal here would also see Haaland smash the record for the fewest games taken to reach double figures for Premier League goals at the start of a season, with Mick Quinn in 1992-93 and Haaland himself in 2022-23 previously doing so in six outings.

Haaland’s overall tally of 72 Premier League goals – which have come in just 70 appearances – places him third in City’s all-time goalscoring charts in the competition, behind only Sergio Aguero (184) and Raheem Sterling (91) – who could line up for Arsenal on Sunday after arriving on loan from Chelsea.

Should Haaland find the net on Sunday, which could be his 105th appearance for City overall, he would match the number of games Cristiano Ronaldo required to hit a ton of goals for Real Madrid.

For further context, Lionel Messi needed 188 to bring up a century for Barcelona, Robert Lewandowski required 136 at Bayern Munich and City legend Aguero took 158 matches.

With the pretenders to City’s throne in town, what better time for Haaland to bring up yet another goalscoring landmark?

Fortune favours the brave?

Arsenal did come out on top in their duels with City last season, taking four points via a 1-0 home win and their hard-fought goalless draw at the Etihad.

That is double the number they managed in their previous 15 league meetings with the Citizens, recording two draws and 13 defeats.

Both Guardiola and Mikel Arteta were cautious in their Easter-Day draw, with many onlookers berating the sight of eight (yes, eight) recognised centre-backs starting in a game that produced a mere 1.68 expected goals (xG) in total.

Arsenal managed two clean sheets against Guardiola’s men last term, having conceded in 16 straight against them beforehand, shipping 40 goals in total in that run.

Arsenal then followed that draw by winning eight of their last nine games of the season, only slipping up in a 2-0 home loss to Aston Villa, but it was not enough. For a team trying to dethrone City, it often feels as though nothing is.

If the Gunners are to make it third time lucky in their pursuit of title glory this term, they may need to take both of their chances to beat City.

While Arteta figured out a way to contain City in 2023-24, his team must show more attacking enterprise on Sunday than they did on their last trip to the Etihad, when their six shots totalled just 0.66 xG. That was their fewest attempts in a single Premier League fixture since November 2021, when they had five in a 4-0 loss at Liverpool.

Arsenal also managed just 15 touches in City’s box to their opponents’ 40, their fewest in any Premier League match last season, while only at Bournemouth (28 in a ruthless 4-0 win) did they play fewer passes into the final third last term (36).

The Gunners have been steady, rather than spectacular, through their opening four matches of the season, ranking joint-14th in the Premier League for shots (45) and 14th for xG (4.99) despite having the fourth-most touches in opposition areas (140).

Loathe as he may be to do so, Arteta might need to take the handbrake off on Sunday.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester City – Jeremy Doku

Doku was limited to the role of substitute as City were kept at bay by Inter on Wednesday, but it would be no surprise to see Guardiola inject his electric pace from the off here.

The Belgium international leads all players in the Premier League this season for total progress upfield during carries (747.81 metres) and ranks second for progressive carries (64), behind only Brighton’s Jan Paul van Hecke (66). In fact, he is the only non-centre-back to make the top seven for that particular metric.

Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

Saka has been involved in five of Arsenal’s six Premier League goals so far this season (one goal, four assists), assisting a goal in all four games so far.

In Premier League history, only Gunners great Thierry Henry (2004-05) has provided an assist in each of a team’s first five matches in a season.