The Numbers Game: Will Reds top the Christmas tree after Tottenham trip?

The final set of pre-Christmas Premier League fixtures are upon us, with Arne Slot’s Liverpool hoping to still be top of the tree come 25 December.

They visit Tottenham in Sunday’s late kick-off, shortly after their nearest rivals Chelsea go to Goodison Park to take on Everton.

Having beaten Southampton 2-1 in the EFL Cup on Wednesday, teeing up a last-four tie with Spurs for the new year, the Reds have still only lost one of their 24 matches under Slot in all competitions – against Nottingham Forest in September.

Victory on Sunday will ensure Liverpool top the Premier League table at Christmas for the first time since 2020.

However, the Reds have only won the title in one of the last seven top-flight campaigns in which they have led the way at Christmas, doing so in 2019-20.

Tottenham, meanwhile, have continued to blow hot and cold, trouncing Southampton 5-0 last Sunday then edging out Manchester United by a 4-3 scoreline in a thrilling EFL Cup quarter-final on Thursday. Those results came on the back of a five-game winless run across all competitions.

With a Christmas cracker expected in north London, we delve into the best Opta facts and stats surrounding the fixture.

Two crazy moments in one crazy match between Liverpool and Spurs back in 2023

What will the outcome be when they meet again this Sunday? pic.twitter.com/U4bstsKu4S

— Premier League (@premierleague) December 19, 2024

What’s expected?

The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool firm favourites to take all three points at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, assigning the visitors a 52.7% chance of victory.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Spurs were only victorious in 24.6%, with 22.6% finishing level.

Given the Reds’ recent results against Tottenham, Liverpool should travel south in confident mood. They have only lost two of their last 23 Premier League meetings with Spurs, winning 15 and drawing six, while scoring in each of the teams’ last 17 head-to-head matches.

Tottenham did, however, win this exact fixture 2-1 last season, with that match overshadowed by controversy as Jurgen Klopp’s Reds went down to nine men following red cards for Curtis Jones and Diogo Jota.

Luis Diaz, meanwhile, saw a potential opening goal chalked off incorrectly by VAR Darren England, which referees’ body PGMOL later apologised for.

That game was decided by a Joel Matip own goal in stoppage time, the sixth 90th-minute winner to be scored in Premier League meetings between Tottenham and Liverpool, more than any other fixture in the competition’s history.

Tottenham could now win back-to-back home matches against Liverpool in the Premier League for the first time since enjoying a run of five victories between 2008 and 2012.

Spurs have, though, lost nine of their last 11 Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table, with both exceptions coming against Manchester City (2-2 in August 2019, 3-2 in February 2022). They have lost all five home matches in this run.

Can Salah become Christmas king?

Mohamed Salah has made plenty of headlines on and off the field this campaign.

With no further news on a new contract for the Egyptian, his glittering spell on Merseyside could be drawing to a close. If that is to be the case, he appears determined to go out on a high and has already marked himself out as the outstanding candidate for Player of the Season honours.

In the Premier League’s 32-year history, no player has ever reached double figures for both goals and assists in a single season before Christmas Day. With 13 goals and nine assists to his name this term, Salah will make history if he tees up a goal on Sunday.

Salah appears well on course to achieve the best creative campaign of his career, having never previously surpassed 13 assists in a single league season (his tally from 2021-22).

Only Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (10) has more assists in the Premier League this term, though the expected assists (xA) data may suggest Salah has benefitted from some excellent finishing from his team-mates. Indeed, his total of 3.34 xA this term has been bettered by 10 Premier League players, the likes of Dwight McNeil (3.95), Bryan Mbeumo (3.55) and Youri Tielemans (3.46) among them.

Indeed, Salah’s figure of 0.61 assists per 90 minutes in 2024-25 is easily his best in any single Premier League season, but he managed more xA per 90 in 2023-24 (0.27) and 2021-22 (0.24, compared to 0.23 this season).

He has created an average of 1.84 chances per game this campaign, which is actually his third-lowest figure in a Premier League season, his high of 2.34 coming last term.

Nevertheless, Salah’s importance to Slot’s winning machine cannot be overstated. Indeed, his 22 goal involvements in the Premier League this term account for 71% of Liverpool’s total goal tally (31), by far the highest share of any player in the competition.

Another piece of Premier League history could await Salah – the single most important player in the competition – this week.

Leaky backline to cost Spurs?

If Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham had to be described using one word, entertaining would surely be one of the first to spring to mind. Inconsistent would be another.

Having finished on the right side of Thursday’s seven-goal thriller against United, in which they almost squandered a 3-0 lead thanks to two Fraser Forster errors, Tottenham have now scored three or more goals in nine different games this season alone.

Only Chelsea (37) have bettered their 36 Premier League goals this term, while they rank fourth in the division for expected goals (31.18 xG) and total shots (249), and second for shots on target (97).

Defensively, however, it has all too often been a mess. Spurs’ figure of 24.28 expected goals against (xGA) is the league’s eighth-worst, their opponents generating a greater quality of chances than those allowed by 15th-placed Crystal Palace (22.51) or 16th-placed Everton (20.27).

The excruciating demands of Tottenham’s high press proved costly in a 4-3 defeat to Chelsea last time out at home, and should they persist with a similar approach against Liverpool’s livewire attackers, this could be another difficult outing.

Only Chelsea (28) have attempted more shots from fast breaks than Liverpool (23) in the Premier League this campaign, with Salah (10) leading the way among all players in the division.

Support for Postecoglou has been on a knife edge lately, with some Spurs fans remonstrating with the Australian in the aftermath of a defeat at Bournemouth, while others remain firmly behind the idealistic Australian.

Tottenham must, at all costs, avoid allowing Liverpool to run away with the contest early and create a toxic atmosphere.

At home, Spurs have only managed one clean sheet in their last 23 league games – against toothless Everton in August. Their current three-match winless run at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is their longest in the competition since December 2013 (a run of four).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Tottenham – Son Heung-min

Son had a game to remember against Southampton last weekend, with his two assists taking him level with Darren Anderton as the Spurs player with the most assists in Premier League history (68). He will be determined to take that honour outright next time out.

The South Korean also netted on the south coast, becoming just the 20th player to score in at least 100 different Premier League matches.

Son needed 316 appearances in the competition to do so, meaning he accomplished the feat quicker than players including Teddy Sheringham (329), Nicolas Anelka (331), Robbie Keane (335) and Jermain Defoe (338).

Liverpool – Diogo Jota

Having been sent off in this exact fixture last season, Jota will be looking for revenge against an opponent he has excelled against in the past.

Jota scored the winner for Wolves at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium back in March 2020 and has since netted twice in four more league appearances against Spurs – only against Leicester City, Arsenal (both six) and Southampton (four) has he netted more Premier League goals.

He came off the bench to net Liverpool’s equaliser against Fulham in a 2-2 draw last week, his eighth league goal as a substitute for the Reds – no player has more in the competition since his Anfield arrival in September 2020.