The Numbers Game: Will Slot´s Liverpool machine keep paying out against in-form Chelsea?

Two teams who are flying high so far this season go head-to-head in this weekend’s big Premier League game.

League leaders Liverpool welcome in-form Chelsea to Anfield for a mouthwatering encounter.

The Reds have been in excellent form under new boss Arne Slot, who is the first Liverpool manager to win as many as nine of his first 10 games in charge of the club.

However, Opta’s power ranking system suggests that Liverpool have actually had the easiest start of any Premier League team.

Chelsea, who have won four of their last six league outings after losing to Manchester City in their opening match, are sure to present an altogether tougher test.

Here, we delve into the data.

What’s expected?

Having lost three consecutive league games against Chelsea between 2013 and 2014, Liverpool have now lost just two of their last 19 against the Blues (W7 D10).

Indeed, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six Premier League meetings with Chelsea, though five of these have ended level (W1).

With a recent record that strong, it’s hardly surprising that the Reds are made the favourites by Opta’s supercomputer.

The model gives Liverpool a 59.4% chance of taking the three points, while Chelsea came out on top in 19.4% of its simulations. The likelihood of a draw is 21.2%.

Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League away games against Liverpool (D5 L3), and they went down 4-1 in the corresponding fixture last season.

That big win for the Reds came less than a month before the EFL Cup final, which a depleted Liverpool won 1-0 thanks to Virgil van Dijk’s header deep into stoppage time, with Chelsea – then of course overseen by Mauricio Pochettino – passed up four big chances, defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a team would reasonably be expected to score.

But under Enzo Maresca, who is freshly minted as Premier League Manager of the Month for September, Chelsea have been more clinical. Only Man City (17) have scored more goals than the Blues (16), who have also outperformed their 14.7 expected goals (xG), so they will be hoping to capitalise on any big opportunities that come their way on Sunday.

Getting past Liverpool’s defence, though, is another matter.

Solid foundations

Replacing a club legend like Jurgen Klopp was not going to be easy, though Slot is making a good fist of making it look simple so far.

The former Feyenoord coach has reduced the chaos and brought slightly more control to Liverpool’s play, and for the most part, this has worked a treat, bar in that shock 1-0 home defeat to Nottingham Forest in September.

Liverpool have still registered the third-highest xG in the league over the first seven games (14.0), behind Chelsea and Tottenham, but Slot has looked to build on a strong base.

Slot’s team have conceded the fewest goals (two), kept the most clean sheets (five), and have the lowest expected goals against (xGA) figure (5.2) of any side in the Premier League this season.

In the 266 minutes Liverpool’s Premier League games have been level on the scoreline this season, the Reds have faced just 16 shots, an average of 5.4 per 90. This is both the lowest total faced and per 90 faced when drawing of any side in the competition this term.

They have ridden their luck at times, though. They were shaky and perhaps fortunate that Virgil van Dijk did not give away a penalty for pulling on Marc Guehi’s shirt in the 1-0 win at Crystal Palace prior to the international break.

That victory came at a cost, too, with goalkeeper Alisson sustaining a hamstring injury that will keep him out until after the November international break.

In Caoimhin Kelleher, Liverpool have a fantastic number two (and one that wishes to move on), though. The Republic of Ireland international has always stood up to be counted when required, and since the start of last season, has recorded an impressive goals-prevented figure of 2.9, having conceded 10 goals (excluding own goals and penalties) from an expected goals on target (xGoT) against of 12.9.

Kelleher also played against Chelsea in the EFL Cup final in February, so he has good recent form against them.

13 – Caoimhín Kelleher hasn’t conceded a goal in either of his two finals for Liverpool (both v Chelsea), despite facing 13 shots on target and 3.9 xG on target. Elite. pic.twitter.com/JE95cShfoG

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) February 25, 2024

Top travellers

Chelsea are no pushovers on the road, though, so do not expect a repeat of last season’s 4-1 drubbing.

In fact, these two teams are the only ones with a 100% away win rate in the Premier League this season (three wins out of three).

Only in 2005-06 (four) and 2008-09 (eight) have Chelsea ever won their opening four away matches of a league season.

Maresca, meanwhile, is looking to become only the fifth boss to win each of his first four away Premier League games, with one of the previous four to do so being Slot (also Bobby Gould, John Gregory, and Luiz Felipe Scolari).

Chelsea will want to get on the ball, but they may be best served being patient and waiting for their moments to pounce on the break.

Key to that tactic would be Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke, who have created 15 chances for each other in the Premier League this season, the most of any duo.

Indeed, Palmer’s four assists for Madueke is also the most from one player for a team-mate so far this term. Though in Nicolas Jackson and the likes of Joao Felix, Pedro Neto and Jadon Sancho, Chelsea have plenty of attackers who can test that mean Liverpool defence.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

Salah has accumulated 4.1 xG in the league this season, which is the highest of any player in Liverpool’s squad. With 231 goal contributions for Liverpool (159 goals, 72 assists), he ranks sixth on the all-time list for Premier League goal contributions for a single side.

The Egypt star has scored four goals in 13 Premier League games against former side Chelsea, averaging a goal every 257 minutes against the Blues. Among opponents he has played 10+ times in the competition, only against Burnley (778) does he have a poorer minutes per goal rate.

Chelsea – Cole Palmer

Palmer has directly contributed to more Premier League goals (44 – 28 goals, 16 assists) than any other player in the top flight since the start of last season.

The 22-year-old was named Premier League Player of the Month for September. He has won two of the last three Player of the Month awards, with only Frank Lampard (four) winning more for the Blues than Palmer (two).