Top four show us how it is done – statistically

Before today’s games in the English Premier League the table has a familiar and slightly depressing look about it.

The top four? Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester United. Well there’s a surprise!

Cream rises to the top

I am a great believer that the best teams should always come out on top. I love to see the most talented people getting what they deserve. I’m not one who regularly enjoys victories for the underdogs, I much prefer the cream to rise to the top.

Having said that, I do wish that one of the chasing pack of teams could manage to dislodge one of the four and make it more interesting than just finding out which one of the four will come out on top.

If you take a look at their games yesterday, it hard to see how anyone else is going to get close to them.

Twenty three shots

Manchester United eventually blew away West Brom 4-0 although the visitors did keep it level until the second half. The most telling statistics are the amount of possession and amount of territorial advantage that United had. In this game, United had 57% possession, 62% territorial advantage and twenty three shots.

64% possession

Arsenal overcame a disappointing Everton side 3-1 despite Everton taking an early lead. In this game Arsenal were even more dominant than Manchester United. They had 64% possession and 59% territorial advantage. They had twenty-five shots.

Scissor kick

Liverpool had the toughest day of the top four, finally overcoming a very good Wigan side 3-2 with a late scuffed scissor kick from Dirk Kuyt after Wigan had been reduced to ten men. The new star of the Premier League Amr Zaki scored twice for the visitors but Liverpool just managed to take the three points. A look at the statistics however, shows that Liverpool had 64% of the possession, as much as Arsenal and more than United, but only turned that possession into 52% of the territorial advantage. Liverpool managed twenty-one strikes at goal.

71% possession

The most flowing performance came from Chelsea who humiliated Middlesbrough 5-0 at the Riverside. The only thing that will please Middlesbrough about this game is that it was only 5-0. It could have been so many more. The statistics are interesting. Chelsea had a remarkable 71% of the possession. However, they had less than half of the territorial advantage and produced twenty-two strikes at goal.

So what do these statistics tell us? Sadly, they just confirm to us that the top four are in a different league to the rest. In their games they consistently achieve around 60% possession, and as can be seen from yesterday, they strike for goal over twenty times. If you have the ball more than the opposition and you are shooting at goal once every three or four minutes then you are not going to lose many games.

University lecturer

The nearest challenger to the top four at the moment is Aston Villa. They drew with Portsmouth yesterday 0-0. In that game, Villa shared the possession 50-50, had 56% of the territorial advantage and managed thirteen attempts on goal. It doesn’t need a university lecturer in football statistics to see the difference between that and what the top four produce.

There are three old adages in football. The first one says that whilst your team have the ball, the other team can’t score. The second one says you can’t win games if you don’t score goals and the third one says you can’t score goals if you don’t have shots.

The great Bill Shankley

The great Bill Shankley once said that Football really is a simple game. If you look at those old adages they are pretty simple. Keep the ball and have as many attempts on goal as possible. That is exactly what the big four do. They keep the ball and they strike for goal. It is that simple.

The most shots that any other Premier League team managed yesterday was the sixteen attempted by Fulham in their goalless draw with Sunderland.

Simple to say

It looks then, with a little help from technology, we might have stumbled on the amazing football fact that a lot of the old adages are actually pretty wise. They might be obvious and simple to say and explain but they are incredibly difficult to put into practice. The fact that some teams put them into practice better than others is why they are the elite and they will always rise to the top.

In a one-off game a team could have thirty shots and not score and the other team could bury the one and only chance they get all the game. That is why the Cup is so exciting. Over the course of a season, the team having the most shots will almost certainly rise to the top.

Long wait

So there it is, proved by statistics. The big four will occupy those top four places until another team work out how to keep the ball as well as them and how to create scoring opportunities as well as them.

I think we may have a long wait.

(Source for all statistics – Sky Sports)