Where did it all go wrong? Man City crisis leaves Pep wishing for a Christmas miracle

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Pep Guardiola only signed a new contract to keep him at Manchester City for a further two years back in November.

Yet a month on from Guardiola putting pen to paper, matters on the pitch have got worse for City.

Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa means City have now lost nine times in the space of 12 matches across all competitions.

While there has not been much talk of Guardiola being under any serious pressure when it comes to dismissal, he does need something of a minor miracle after Christmas if City are to salvage anything from the season.

They face a crunch clash in the Champions League against Paris Saint-Germain in January, while they are way off the pace in the Premier League title race.

Here, we delve into the Opta numbers behind City’s terrible run.

Just how bad is it?

City have lost nine of their last 12 games in all competitions (W1 D2). When comparing that to when the other “big six” clubs last had such a run of defeats in the space of 12 games, we can see it was 2023 for Chelsea, 1997 for Tottenham, 1977 for Arsenal, 1961 for Manchester United and 1954 for Liverpool.

To put City’s drop-off into further context, their previous nine defeats in all competitions had come across a run of 112 games.

The reigning champions have already lost nine games in all competitions this term. Only in 2019-20 (12) and 2016-17 (10) have City lost more matches in a season under Guardiola. In fact, those campaigns are the only seasons Guardiola has lost more matches as a manager than he has in 2024-25.

City are winless in five consecutive Premier League away games (D1 L4) for the first time under Guardiola, last failing to win more consecutive such matches in December 2015 (six) under Manuel Pellegrini. They will be glad they are back on home turf when Everton visit the Etihad Stadium on Boxing Day.

Before his seven-game winless run earlier this season (prior to City’s victory over Nottingham Forest in early December), Guardiola’s previous longest winless run was six (set in the 2016-17 season, his first at City).

9 – Manchester City have lost 9 of their last 12 games in all competitions (W1 D2). The last time other selected clubs had a run of 9 defeats in 12 games:

Chelsea – 25/05/2023
Tottenham – 26/12/1997
Arsenal – 23/03/1977
Man Utd – 16/12/1961
Liverpool – 23/01/1954

Unprecedented. pic.twitter.com/6Ls5Zw6poF

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 21, 2024

Earlier on in City’s poor run, Guardiola lost four games in a row in all competitions for the first time in his managerial career.

So yes, it has been bad.

Over the hill?

Much has been made of Kyle Walker’s drop in form this season, and the 34-year-old was dropped to the bench at Villa Park, though he did come on as City looked to turn the tide in their favour.

But Walker is just one of several key players that seem to be now well beyond their peak.

Kevin De Bruyne, 33, has struggled with injuries. Bernardo Silva has played the second-most minutes of any outfielder in Man City’s squad since the start of the 2022-23 Premier League season, but he is now 30. John Stones, who turned 30 in May, has failed to stay fit consistently. Jack Grealish, Nathan Ake, Manuel Akanji are all 29.

City have started 11 players aged 29 or over this season, which is at least two more than any other team in the Premier League (West Ham, nine).

What’s happening with Haaland?

Erling Haaland has been a goalscoring machine ever since his arrival at City, though there has also always been the underlying suggestion that perhaps Guardiola’s tactical approach does not get the very best out of the Norway star.

Haaland started the campaign brilliantly. Prior to October 27, Haaland had played 13 times in all competitions, scoring 14 goals, averaging a goal every 81 minutes.

He was registering 4.8 shots per 90, and 2.8 shots on target per 90, with a 23.3% shot conversion rate, while having 7.6 touches in the opponent’s area.

Yet since the start of City’s miserable run, Haaland has scored just four goals in 11 appearances. His minutes per goal ratio has dropped to 248, while his expected goals per 90 has sunk from 1.0 to 0.7.

He is only managing 3.7 shots per 90 and 1.7 on target, while his shot conversion rate has dropped markedly to 9.8%. Haaland has averaged just six touches in the opposition box per 90 in this run.

Haaland is cutting an increasingly isolated figure, and on the occasions City are supplying him with the ammunition, he certainly isn’t firing on all cylinders.

The crux of the issue…

It is probably not sensible to pin City’s problems on one thing, but it is also fair to say that Rodri’s absence has derailed their campaign.

The Ballon d’Or winner has been the lynchpin of City’s dominance over recent seasons, not only anchoring the midfield, but also coming up with crucial goals in huge moments.

Since the start of last season, City have played 19 Premier League matches without Rodri. They have lost nine of those.

In that same time, Rodri has featured in 36 top-flight games, with City not losing a single one of those fixtures, so the statistics show just how pivotal he is.

It’s not just Rodri, though. Ruben Dias has also suffered with injury this term.

City have lost all four league games that Dias has missed this season, whereas they have lost just two of the 13 matches in which he has featured, winning eight of them (61.5%).

With the Portugal international in the team, their average goals against per game is 1.2. Without Dias, City have conceded 2.5 goals per game on average.

Now what?

City’s title chances are all but over. They are 12 points adrift of league leaders Liverpool, and down in seventh heading into Christmas. The Opta supercomputer hands them just a 0.6% chance of retaining their crown.

They are still anticipated to finish in the top four, with a 76.9% chance overall.

City did go into last Christmas in fifth place, and still recovered to win the title. Indeed, only twice under Guardiola (2017-18 and 2020-21) have they actually been top on Christmas Day, but a comeback this season seems out of reach.

Their Champions League hopes also hang in the balance ahead of a crunch clash with Paris Saint-Germain. City sit 22nd in that 36-team league, with the teams placed between ninth and 24th qualifying for the play-off round for the knockout stage.

Salford are their opponents in the FA Cup, so it is not as though City’s hopes are totally over, and there is the January transfer window for them to bolster their squad.

That being said, there is also the lingering uncertainty over the 100+ charges dealt their way by the Premier League. City’s case has now been heard, and a decision is expected in the new year.

First and foremost for Guardiola, though, he just needs to get back to level ground. Fixtures against Everton, Leicester City and West Ham present a solid opportunity to do just that.