Where will the shocks come in the FA Cup?

FA Cup third round day is an exciting day for the fans of the little clubs and a often a nervous day for the fans of the Premier League big boys.

There has probably never been a third round in the history of the cup that hasn’t contained at least one giant killing act. This year will be no different.

Rather than doing predictions this week I thought I’d look at the games involving Premier League teams and see if we can find where the inevitable shock or shocks are going to take place.

Friday 2nd January 2009

This game was played last night. No possibility of a shock here as both teams are in the top league and would have fancied their chances equally. As it turned out, the current Cup holder, Harry Redknapp, saw his new charges ease into the next round with a 3-1 win. A brace from Pavlyuchenko and another from Modric put an end to Wigan’s hopes in the tournament.

Saturday 3rd January 2009

Who knows what team Arsene Wenger will select for this one. It is a fact that Wenger must believe that he needs to produce a trophy this season and this competition is by far his best chance. His experiment with the kids in the Carling Cup came unstuck in the defeat at Burnley and Premier League title chances are fading fast. The Champions League is still a possibility but realistically, this is Arsenal’s main chance of glory.

Plymouth are comfortably in mid-table in the Championship and will have nothing to lose at The Emirates.

If Arsenal score early they could get a few. Whatever happens, I don’t expect to see a shock in this one.

Chelsea are still in three competitions with a reasonable chance in each of them. This would be the third choice of the three for most at the club, but once again, represents the easiest chance of winning something. I can’t see Scolari taking too many chances after the Carling Cup upset when they lost on penalties to Burnley so I would expect an efficient Chelsea performance.

Southend are mid-table in league one and are coming off a 2-0 defeat at leaders MK Dons. They are a bit like lambs to the slaughter in this one I’m afraid.

There is no doubt that Stoke will have been less than thrilled when this draw came out of the hat. They have had a decent first half of the season in the Premier League but were upset by Derby in the Carling Cup. Some say a good cup run helps with a relegation battle and others say it gets in the way. I think Tony Pulis will be keen win this one and take his team as far as he can in the competition.

Hartlepool are slipping down the league one table after 4-1 and 3-0 defeats following the sacking of their manager. They will be pleased to have the distraction of the cup.

No shock in this one.

Neither side will have been pleased with this draw. They’d both like a cup run but for one of them, it isn’t going to happen.

Impossible to call this one and as I’ve said I’m not doing predictions, I’m not going to! 🙂

It is never nice for a top side to get drawn away at a lower league side, but if you are going to, this is about as good as it could get.

Everton are in decent form and seem to be entering the race for fourth place in the Premiership. Macclesfield are mid-table in league two and have conceded twenty-six goals in their twelve home games so far.

Again, no shock here.

A few years ago this would have been a battle of the giants. Now, it is a chance of a giant killing. The richest club in the world taking on Championship strugglers.

Manchester City are an enigma who can’t win many games but when they do, they win by at least three goals.

Nottingham Forest have fallen a long way since their European Cup triumphs but did get promoted into the Championship last year. Unfortunately for them they have struggled to adapt and currently sit fourth from bottom. They did win their last game and are playing under a new manager.

This one might be tight but I still don’t see that elusive shock.

In theory this should be the easiest game for any of the Premier League sides. Middlesbrough have slipped down the table and are in a bad run, but they are an established top flight team.

Barrow, a former league club, are currently twentieth in the Blue Square Premier League. To put it in perspective, that’s seventy-one place below Middlesbrough on the ladder. Boro’s last game was a defeat against European Champions Manchester United and Barrow’s last game was a defeat against Forest Green Rovers.

I’ve got a sneaky feeling about this one. I know it sounds ridiculous but I fancy Barrow to get a draw and take Middlesbrough back to their place for a money spinning replay.

The Cup holders should win this one but they do seem to be in some sort of disarray under Tony Adams. The talk of half of their team moving to Tottenham in the transfer window won’t be helping and nor will the poor form of David James.

This is a good time to be playing Portsmouth but after making the Championship play-off final last season where they lost to Hull, Bristol City have had a less successful season this time around. They currently sit twelfth but have won two in a row.

Could be close but I think the holders will scrape through.

Liverpool are sitting pretty at the top of the Premier League and their 5-1 win at Newcastle last week will have sent tremors around Preston.

Preston are going well in the Championship just outside the play-off places and their manager, Alan Irvine, was assistant manager to David Moyes at Everton for some time. He would love to put one over Liverpool.

He won’t though. Liverpool are too strong at the moment.

Fulham look like the real deal these days as a Premier League team. They play some decent stuff and are difficult to beat.

Sheffield Wednesday’s Hillsborough ground is an intimidating place to go and the prospect of a Premier League scalp will have the ground rocking.

Fulham should just about scrape past the mid-table Championship side.

Another all Premier League game and another difficult one to predict. It was the 4-1 humiliation at home to Bolton that led to Roy Keane leaving Sunderland, but things have got better for them since then.

Bolton are just stumbling a little at the moment and this one will definitely be tight.

West Brom are fighting for their Premier League lives and a cup game is probably an unwelcome distraction for them at the moment. With two home wins in a row, they would have been happier playing another league game.

If you were bottom of the Premier League and had to play a home cup game who would you not want it to be against? A team sitting in the play-off places in league one who scored six goals in their last away match and are managed by Sir Alex Ferguson’s son Darren would be about right!

This is the main tip for an upset. West Brom will not be looking forward to this one at all.

West Ham are in a bit of mess behind the scenes and are stumbling and stuttering on the pitch. What better than a cup game against Championship opponents who knocked Liverpool and Chelsea out last year and got to the final?

Barnsley are going OK in this season’s Championship whereas last year they nearly went down. I don’t think they’ll make it a hat-trick of Premier League victims.

Sunday 4th January 2009

Tough place to go for Aston Villa who will no doubt rest some of their stars. Martin O’Neill would love a cup run but he knows that the fourth spot in the Premier League is a whole lot more important.

Whatever team O’Neill selects they should have too much for Gillingham who are tenth in league two.

Manchester United still have a realistic chance of winning five trophies this season. The FA Cup doesn’t feature too highly on the list but they’ll be looking to go all the way.

Southampton are a side that play great football under their Dutch manager Jan Poortvliet but are young, inexperienced and not doing very well. No win in eight games has seen them drop into the Championship relegation zone.

United should win this one comfortably.

Monday 5th January 2009

The last game of the round sees the former Premier League champions travel to Blue Square North side Blyth Spartans, some one hundred and eighteen places below them in the football pyramid.

This is the type of game that the FA Cup is all about. Spartans have lost their last three games without scoring a goal and Blackburn are looking a better side now under San Allardyce than they were under the unfortunate Paul Ince.

It’ll be a great night for all connected with Blyth Spartans, but they won’t be causing any upsets.

So there we have it. The top tip for a shock is at West Brom and the outside tip is for a Barrow result at Middlesbrough. Whatever happens, it’ll be a great day for all the underdogs.