Which Factors Impact Results of Soccer Matches?

Whether you’re a punter or not, trying to predict soccer matches is probably something every fan of footy has done at some point or another. We all want to know the results of football games before they happen.

Some of us want to use such predictions to win bets. Others simply enjoy the discussions and forecasts of how our favourite teams will perform. 

Unless you have a crystal ball and supernatural powers, though, predicting the future is impossible. Or is it?

While we can never truly know what the future brings, bookmakers and analysts alike have used statistics and probability calculations to predict football games for decades. Knowing how to calculate the probability of an upcoming matchup is a skill that takes decades to develop, though. It’s a crucial for developing a sports betting strategy, but you can’t do it without lots of time and practice.

So what can you do to start predicting results of football right now? For starters, you can get to know some of the most important factors that affect the outcome of a football game. Here’s a quick rundown of each of them.

1. Current Form

It goes without saying that the form of a team and all of its players directly impacts how well they will play, and hence their chances of winning. Just ask yourself – how has the team’s play been in the current season? Are they performing above or below expectations? Are there any obvious problems they’re facing in the field, such as low possession or a leaky defence?

If you’re looking for more obvious indicators, you can simply check the season’s league standings. See who the team played against and what the results were. Also, check up on important stats like GF, GA, and GD.

2. Head to Head

Head-to-head records are not always reliable – most of the time, any available information will be quite outdated. Still, it’s a worthwhile indicator of things like playing styles and team strategies. If you notice a team performs unusually well (or exceptionally poorly) against another team, you may be onto something that can affect game outcomes.

3. Home/Away Advantage and Records

Playing at Home is a huge advantage in football. That’s just a fact – in most leagues, 50% of all games are won by the home team, with away victories rarely going above 30%. 

Bear in mind, though, that there’s more nuance to this factor than it may seem. For instance, some teams are more affected by home advantage than others. This can easily be checked by looking over the current season’s standings. See how many home games they won compared to away games, and how that compares to the league’s average. Who knows – you may just find a great opportunity for betting value.

4. Weather and Turf Conditions

Though some may consider this to be a minor factor at least, it doesn’t hurt to check weather forecasts. Poor weather and muddy terrain often prohibit players from putting on their best performance. This affects both teams, of course, but often not to the same degree.

Furthermore, rainy or snowy weather generally means that the game will see fewer goals. This can be very helpful information if you’re planning to use markets such as Over/Under 2.5 Goals or Both Teams to Score.  For instance, a high-scoring team may not be able to achieve their goal average if they’re stuck in the mud.

5. Scheduling

Teams can be significantly impacted by schedules and fixture lists.

For instance, a hectic schedule might tax players’ stamina beyond their limits. They could become worn out and possibly sustain injuries. For this reason, teams that have a lot of games to play in a short amount of time frequently see their performance decline. This is particularly true for teams that, whether through choice or a lack of finances, don’t switch out their players too frequently.

It’s not just the pace you should check, too. Tougher opponents are more demanding both physically and mentally and may lead to worse performance in future outings. If you’re really focused on a particular bout, the schedules for individual players need to be considered as well. Especially if they’re, for example, also expected to play for their national team.

6. Injuries & Suspensions

Keep up with football news and be on the lookout for injuries and suspensions. Any team that can’t bring their full starting 11 to the table is at an obvious disadvantage. Even missing substitute players can hamper a squad’s ability to keep up the pace – not being able to replace worn-out players can be a serious issue.

Moreover, keep track of which players are unable to play and why. For instance, a club whose main goal-getter is injured will have a significantly weaker offence. Additionally, not all players are as important to their teams’ formations and strategies, so a deep understanding of their lineup can help a lot.

7. Motivation

Similarly, not all games played during a season are as important to a team’s success. This becomes an increasingly important factor as the season moves closer to its conclusion.

For example, if a match doesn’t really affect a team’s standings and they don’t consider their opponent a major threat, they may perform at a lower level than usual. Conversely, a match whose results determine qualifications, relegations, promotions, or final standings is seen as a priority by both the players and the management. Players are more likely to give it their all and even exceed expectations.

Other Factors

Finally, we’ll mention a few other things you should keep in mind if you’re especially detail-oriented.

• Discipline – A rowdy squad of individualistic players may in some ways be a crowd-pleaser, but a lack of discipline and cooperation can severely hamper a football team’s performance.
• Psychology – Though this point is similar to motivation, there’s more to it. For instance, some players are spurred by a challenge and perform better against tough opponents. Others, however, often give in to the feeling of hopelessness.
• Playing style – Keep a team’s general style of play in mind, especially for markets that are affected by scores or goal differences. For instance, defensive formations and strategies are conducive to markets like Under 2.5 Goals scored.