Favourites Brazil and Argentina were both on the receiving end of shock eliminations in the quarter final stage of this year’s Copa America tournament overnight, leaving the race for the 2011 title well and truly open.
Brazil failed in their quest to break down a resolute Paraguayan outfit that were inspired by their goalkeeper Justo Villar, with the match ending 0-0 after the allotted 120 minutes. Incredibly, the five time World Cup winners missed all four of their spot kicks in the shoot out, sealing their fate on the night.
Meanwhile, the Argentine hosts were the better side in their respective quarter final against Uruguay, but failed to capitalise on their opportunities, going down 5-4 on penalties, with Carlos Tevez missing the decisive shot.
Chile and Colombia joined the heavyweights out at this stage, capping off one of the most incredible rounds of an international tournament in the history of world football. And so, we are now left with Uruguay, Peru, Paraguay and Venezuela as the unlikely final four contenders, who are all vying for the 2011 Copa America.
The fixtures for the semi-finals are as follows:
Uruguay – Peru (July 19)
Paraguay – Venezuela (July 20)
Let’s take a look at the remaining nation’s chances, and who has what it takes to go all the way:
Uruguay
On paper, the Uruguayans are the undoubted favourites to win the title, and will take a great deal of confidence from their memorable victory over the hosts in the quarters. Having said this though, if the earlier results are anything to go by, then their passage to the final at least, is most certainly not assured just yet.
Should they go on to lift the trophy, it will be the 15th in the nation’s history, meaning they will surpass Argentina (14), as the most successful country of all-time in this tournament. In order to advance to the final, they must overcome Peru, a team they could only manage a 1-1 draw with in the group stage, earlier in the competition.
With the likes of Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and Diego Perez running around, they will be the team to beat, and are the deserved favourites to create history in Argentina.
Uruguay’s chances of winning the 2011 Copa America: 45%
Peru
The underdogs in the first of the semi-finals are relatively inexperienced, but will take a great deal of confidence from their 2-0 triumph in extra time over the highly fancied Colombians. Having previously won two titles, the Peruvians have not appeared at this stage of the competition for 14 years, and certainly couldn’t have asked for a more difficult passage to the final.
Nevertheless, they will also take some belief from the drawn result, when the two sides met a couple of weeks ago, particularly as they scored the opening goal in that particular contest.
Despite not possessing the world’s best defensive line, Peru have only conceded twice in four matches, one of which was an own goal in the last minute against Chile in the group stage. They will be extremely difficult to break down, and could be the surprise packets of the final four.
Peru’s chances of winning the 2011 Copa America: 20%
Paraguay
Paraguay have had the toughest rout to the final four, having to face the almighty Brazil on two separate occasions. They certainly do play with a great deal of style and flare, and can also play a more defensive style when required – as proven in their most recent clash with the Brazilians.
In the quarters, the Paraguayans narrowly held on to a scoreless draw, playing a counter attacking brand of football, recording their very first shot in the 90th minute of play. Relying on a penalty shoot-out to get the job done, Paraguay were extremely fortunate that their opponents scuffed all four of their efforts from the spot.
Nevertheless, they remain undefeated in this tournament, however more alarming for them is the fact that they have failed to register a single victory to this point. Four draws from four games is concerning, particularly with a heavyweight in Uruguay potentially awaiting them in the final.
Paraguay’s chances of winning the 2011 Copa America: 25%
Venezuela
The nation that no one would ever have expected to be in the final four, have defied all of the odds to advance to the semi-finals for the first time in their history. Venezuela had incredibly won just two matches in almost 50 matches at the Copa America, making it three with victory over Ecuador in the group stage.
A respectable 0-0 draw with Brazil, followed by a remarkable comeback against their upcoming opponents, was enough for the Venezuelans to advance from the groups in second place. When they last met the Paraguayans, two goals in the final three minutes of play, handed the nation a well-deserved 3-3 draw, ensuring they secured their passage from the group in second position.
With nothing to lose in the semi-final stage, not much will be expected of the tournament’s underdog. Along with their opponents and Uruguay, they are yet to taste defeat in the 2011 edition, and will come into the clash in Mendoza full of confidence. Whilst their chances may be slim, do not rule out a Venezuelan win.
Venezuela’s chances of winning the 2011 Copa America: 10%
Who will win the 2011 Copa America following the elimination of Brazil and Argentina?
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