Women´s Super League predictions: Can Chelsea bounce back against Man City?

Another week, another action-packed schedule of Women’s Super League action awaits, with some intriguing fixtures at both ends of the table.

Manchester City exacted revenge for their Women’s League Cup final defeat to Chelsea with a Vivianne Miedema-inspired 2-0 victory over the Blues in their Champions League quarter-final first leg on Wednesday.

The result saw Chelsea’s record-equalling 31-game unbeaten run grind to a halt, while also inflicting Sonia Bompastor’s first loss since taking over from Emma Hayes.

But how will they respond when they square off against the Citizens for the third time in a row at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday?

Arsenal, who were also involved in midweek action, will be looking to bounce back from their defeat to Real Madrid and close the gap to the summit when they face Liverpool.

The battle at the bottom is also beginning to heat up, with Crystal Palace, buoyed by their second win of the season last time out, now within touching distance of safety and travelling to Merseyside to face Everton next.

Relegation-threatened Aston Villa and Leicester City face tough tests against Manchester United and Brighton respectively, while Tottenham Hotspur will be looking to end their poor run of form in a London derby against West Ham United.

But who does the Opta supercomputer think will be the winners and losers on matchday 17?

EVERTON V CRYSTAL PALACE

The weekend’s action kicks off at Walton Hall Park on Saturday, where Everton will be looking to bounce back from their 3-1 defeat to Arsenal against a rejuvenated Palace side.

Palace picked up just their second win of the WSL season last time out against Aston Villa, and should they earn three points this weekend, matchday 17 would be the latest that a newly promoted team has recorded back-to-back victories in a single campaign in the competition (excluding sides who didn’t win two in a row).

But the Eagles’ form on the road this season has left a lot to be desired. They have won just one of their eight WSL away games this campaign (D2 L5), while they have conceded three or more goals on five of those trips, more times than any other side this term.

And they come up against an Everton side who are unbeaten in their last nine WSL games against newly promoted opposition (W6 D3), since a 3-2 home defeat to Manchester United in February 2020.

The Toffees have also scored in each of their last five league matches at home (nine goals), last netting in more consecutive WSL matches on home turf between October 2019 and November 2020 (nine in a row).

Everton will also be hoping Toni Payne can continue her fine form. After failing to score or assist in each of her first 12 WSL appearances, she has since been directly involved in four goals in her last four league outings (one goal, three assists).

And though their second win of the season has them within touching distance of safety, Palace are handed just a 19.6% chance of winning on Sunday. Everton, meanwhile, prevailed in 59% of the pre-match simulations, while the chance of a draw is 21.4%.

ARSENAL V LIVERPOOL

The other game on Saturday will see Arsenal take on Liverpool, in what is a repeat of their FA Cup quarter-final earlier this month, a game that went in favour of the Reds courtesy of Daphne van Domselaar’s late own goal.

The Gunners will also be licking their wounds from a 2-0 defeat to Real Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final on Tuesday.

However, they will fancy their chances of returning to winning ways to keep the pressure on leaders Chelsea.

Arsenal have won 18 of their 24 WSL meetings with Liverpool (D2 L4), with the Gunners themselves the only team in the competition’s history to have more wins over a single opponent (19 vs Everton).

Renee Slegers’ side have also been imperious in north London this season. They have won each of their last five WSL home games while scoring four or more goals in each victory (23 total goals), the longest such run ever by a team in a single season in the competition’s history.

But Liverpool have been revived under Amber Whiteley since she replaced Matt Beard, with the new Reds boss winning both of her first two WSL games in charge. Only Rehanne Skinner has won her first three matches with a team in the competition after being appointed mid-season (with Tottenham in 2021-22).

Liverpool won 1-0 in this fixture last season and will be aiming to win back-to-back away games in the WSL against Arsenal for just the second time, with the Reds also unbeaten in their three trips to the capital this campaign (W2 D1).

Whiteley’s side will have to be wary of Alessia Russo, though. She has now scored 10 goals for the second WSL campaign in succession (12 in 2023-24, 10 in 2024-25), becoming just the second Arsenal player to reach double figures for goals in multiple top-flight campaigns, after Vivianne Miedema (four).

Arsenal are, however, the supercomputer’s biggest favourites for victory this week, with a 75.9% chance of earning all three points compared to Liverpool’s 9.8%.

WEST HAM V TOTTENHAM

A London derby is in the offing to kick off Sunday’s action, with West Ham welcoming Spurs to the Chigwell Construction Stadium.

West Ham were able to distance themselves from the relegation zone by holding Manchester City to a 1-1 draw last time out, while Spurs lost to Brighton.

Just two points and two places separate the sides going into the contest, and the supercomputer struggles to split the teams, with West Ham given a 36.8% win probability to Tottenham’s 37%.

That means there is a 26.2% chance of a draw, so expect a tightly contested match.

But it is Spurs who have had the better of recent London derbies with the Hammers. They have won each of their last three WSL games against them and could win four successive top-flight meetings with an opponent for only the second time (also v Leicester City in 2021-2023).

West Ham, meanwhile, have lost nine of their last 11 games against teams from the capital in the WSL (W2).

Spurs are in need of a win, having lost each of their last four WSL games. Only between November 2022 and March 2023 have they lost more consecutive matches in the competition (9 in a row).

Indeed, since the beginning of February, Spurs have won the joint-fewest points (0), scored the joint-fewest goals (one) and conceded the joint-most goals (nine) in the WSL.

MANCHESTER CITY V CHELSEA

The standout fixture of the weekend sees Man City do battle with Chelsea for the third time in a row, with the Citizens’ interim head coach Nick Cushing earning his first victory since returning to the club in the Champions League in midweek.

City’s 2-0 victory not only put them in a great position when it comes to reaching the last four in Europe, but also snapped Chelsea’s record-equalling 31-match unbeaten run in all competition.

This will be the third of four meetings between the two teams in all competitions in March alone, the first time two top-flight clubs have met that many times in a single month in the WSL era.

But it is Chelsea who have had the better of this recent fixture in the top flight, winning six of their last 11 WSL meetings with City (D3 L2). No side has handed more defeats to the Citizens since the 2019-20 season (six – level with Arsenal).

The Blues remain undefeated in the league and will have their sights set on immediate revenge ahead of the second leg of their Champions League tie.

Chelsea are the only unbeaten team in England’s top two tiers this season (P16 W14 D2). The last team to avoid defeat in their opening 17 games of a WSL campaign? City, under Cushing, back in 2018-19 (first 19).

Bompastor still boasts the best win rate of any manager in WSL history as it stands, emerging victorious in 14 of her 16 games in the dugout in the competition (D2 – 88%).

Meanwhile, no manager has more wins in the WSL against the Blues than Cushing (five – level with David Parker).

And fresh from her super-sub heroics in midweek, Miedema will be licking her lips at the prospect of facing Chelsea once again.

She has been directly involved in nine goals in 10 WSL appearances against Chelsea (five goals, four assists) and could be the fourth player to be involved in 10 or more goals against the Blues in the competition after Toni Duggan (13), Beth Mead (12) and Kim Little (11).

Despite their midweek victory, City have been handed a win probability of 31.2% to Chelsea’s 43.6%. A draw was the outcome in 25.2% of Opta’s data-led simulations.

LEICESTER CITY V BRIGHTON

Leicester will now be looking nervously over their shoulders following Palace’s victory last week, and come up against a Brighton side looking to win back-to-back WSL games for only the second time this season.

Brighton are also out to record consecutive WSL wins over the Foxes for the first time. Having lost three of their first four fixtures against them in the competition, the Seagulls have won two of the last three (D1).

But Leicester have been strong at home in recent weeks, emerging victorious at the King Power Stadium in their last two WSL games, with their home advantage having them slightly favoured to collect all three points by the supercomputer.

Amandine Miquel’s side won 40.4% of the simulations to Brighton’s 33%, while a draw is given a 26.6% likelihood.

And the first goal in the encounter could be crucial. No team has taken the lead in fewer WSL games this season than Leicester (four), though the Foxes are unbeaten in the league this term when going ahead (W3 D1).

Though Brighton are not favoured by the pre-match simulations, their position in the table is no fluke. Only Spurs (94% – 16/17) have won a greater proportion of their total points in the WSL this season against the current bottom-half teams than Brighton (91% – 20/22).

And that has been helped by the experience of Fran Kirby.

Only Beth England’s goal and assists have been worth more points to her team (10) than Kirby’s have to Brighton this season (seven points – four goals, two assists).

Kirby also netted her 20th winning goal in the WSL last time out, with only Miedema (26) and Sam Kerr (21) scoring more winners in the competition’s history.

ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER UNITED

The weekend’s action concludes at Villa Park, where Aston Villa are desperate for a win, but face a United side with aspirations of finishing in the European places.

Villa have lost each of their last five WSL games, their joint-longest run of defeats in the competition and the current longest streak of any side.

Indeed, Villa manager Natalia Arroyo has lost each of her four WSL games in charge of the Villans and could be the sixth coach to lose each of their first five in the competition, and the first since Leicester’s Jonathan Morgan in October 2021.

Villa have also been on the losing side in seven of their nine top-flight meetings with the Red Devils (D2), while United have never lost to the Villans in the WSL in nine previous games (W7 D2), only facing Spurs (12) and Everton (11) more often in the competition without suffering a defeat.

But Marc Skinner’s side saw their seven-game winning run in the WSL come to an end last time out against Liverpool; they have not lost back-to-back top-flight matches since their final two fixtures of the 2023-24 campaign (vs Liverpool and Chelsea).

United are also unbeaten in 10 previous away matches in the Midlands in the WSL, winning on nine of those trips (D1), and their recent dominance in this fixture has them favoured by the supercomputer.

The Red Devils triumphed in 64.4% of the pre-match simulations. Villa, meanwhile, are given a 16.5% chance of snatching a win, with the draw a more likely outcome at 19.1%.

United must be wary of Villa forward Rachel Daly, though. She has netted all four of Villa’s goals against United in the WSL.