Women´s Super League predictions: Chelsea boss Bompastor backed to break record

Just three sides remain without a defeat heading into matchday eight of the Women’s Super League season, but two of the early pacesetters square off this Saturday.

Manchester City and Chelsea lead the way in the early-season standings, though Sonia Bompastor’s Blues are yet to drop a point from their six games thus far.

That blockbuster encounter, set for Saturday, headlines the upcoming WSL weekend, but there is also plenty more to whet the appetite.

Brighton will be looking to keep pace with the top two against West Ham, while a North London Derby is in the offing between Tottenham and Arsenal.

Sunday’s action sees winless Everton square off against Merseyside rivals Liverpool, while Manchester United travel to the King Power Stadium to take on Leicester City.

But who does the Opta supercomputer predict will emerge victorious this time around? Here, we delve into the pre-match facts for each of this weekend’s fixtures.

BRIGHTON V WEST HAM

Brighton have been the surprise package of the WSL this term, sitting third in the standings, but they were on the end of a 5-0 defeat to a rejuvenated Arsenal last time out.

Despite the Seagulls’ heavy defeat, they are handed a win probability of 51.3%, with West Ham given a 23.9% chance of following up their victory over Leicester with another three points. A draw is given a 24.8% likelihood of happening.

Brighton have won six of their last eight WSL meetings with West Ham (D1 L1), with the Seagulls winning more games against the Hammers than any other opponent in the competition (seven).

They won four straight matches at the Amex between 2019 and 2022 but are winless in three games at the venue since (D1 L2), including a 1-1 draw with Manchester United last month.

West Ham have won just one of their last 14 away games in the Women’s Super League (D3 L10), conceding in each of those matches; the Hammers could now equal their longest run of away matches in the competition without a clean sheet (15 in December 2020).

But Hammers boss Rehanne Skinner has won each of her last four WSL games against Brighton without conceding, a run that includes her biggest ever victory in the competition, winning 8-0 with Tottenham in October 2022.

TOTTENHAM V ARSENAL

Renee Slegers maintained her unbeaten start as Arsenal’s interim head coach with arguably the most dominant display of her tenure, beating Juventus 4-0 in midweek.

And she is predicted to continue her winning streak this weekend, with Arsenal handed a whopping win probability of 67.2%, the largest of any side on matchday eight.

Tottenham, who were on the end of a 4-0 thrashing by Man City last time out, are given a 14.9% chance of victory, with the threat of a draw at 17.9%.

Arsenal have won seven of their nine games against Tottenham in the WSL and have either kept a clean sheet (five) or conceded exactly once (four) in each of those meetings.

Following their 5-0 win over Brighton, Arsenal will be looking to win back-to-back WSL games for the first time this season. This is the Gunners’ longest wait for consecutive wins from the start of a WSL season since 2016 (ninth game).

Tottenham have won only one of their nine meetings with Arsenal in the WSL (D1 L7), but that sole victory did come in this fixture last season, winning 1-0 thanks to a Martha Thomas goal.

Only Vivianne Miedema (eight) has scored more WSL goals in the North London Derby than Arsenal’s Caitlin Foord. She has netted seven times in just eight league appearances against Spurs and will be looking to build on her goal against Juve in midweek.

CHELSEA V MAN CITY

The standout fixture of matchday eight sees Stamford Bridge host Chelsea’s top-of-the-table clash with Man City.

Despite Gareth Taylor’s side sitting at the summit of the standings, they are handed a 22.5% win probability, with the Blues’ hopes of salvaging a point ranked slightly higher at 23.7%. Chelsea, meanwhile, won 53.7% of Opta’s data-led simulations.

Bompastor could become the first ever manager to win each of their first seven games in the WSL. Her Blues are aiming to become the third team in WSL history to win each of their opening seven games of a campaign after this weekend’s opponents did so in 2017-18 (finished 2nd) and Arsenal did so in 2018-19 (finished 1st).

Chelsea have also won all six of their previous matches at Stamford Bridge in the WSL by an aggregate score of 17-4, the most games any team has ever played in the competition at a home venue while maintaining a 100% record.

However, City are unbeaten in their last three WSL meetings with Chelsea (W2 D1) while only Arsenal (10) have recorded more wins over the Blues in the competition than the Citizens (seven).

City have also won 17 of their 19 WSL games in 2024 (D1 L1) and could win 18 top-flight games in a single calendar year for the very first time.

wins in a row in all competitions! pic.twitter.com/t9EJT1Twqe

— Manchester City Women (@ManCityWomen) November 12, 2024

ASTON VILLA V CRYSTAL PALACE

Aston Villa are one of only two sides in the division yet to record a win this season, but are predicted to get their first three points on the board at home to Crystal Palace.

Opta’s data-led simulations favoured the Villans in 51.1% of instances. A draw is given a 24.8% chance of happening, with Palace handed a win probability of just 24.1%.

This will be the second meeting between the two sides already this season, with the Villans winning 2-0 at home in a League Cup group-stage game in October.

This will, however, be the first time Palace have faced Villa in a league game since September 2019, when the Eagles suffered a 6-0 home loss to the eventual 2019-20 Championship winners.

Crystal Palace have won four points from their three away games in the WSL so far this season (W1 D1 L1), becoming just the third newly promoted side to do so after Tottenham in 2019-20 (six) and Aston Villa in 2020-21 (six). No such team has ever picked up seven points from their first four matches on the road in a single campaign.

But Villa are unbeaten in six previous WSL games against newly promoted opposition (W4 D2), though they did draw their last two such home matches (3-3 v Liverpool, 2-2 v Bristol City), and have kept two clean sheets in their last four league games, the same number of shutouts as they managed across their previous 15 WSL matches.

EVERTON V LIVERPOOL

Everton’s 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace saw them pick up just their third point of the season, but they will be hoping to earn their first three points of the year against rivals Liverpool.

The Toffees are handed a 32.6% win probability compared to Liverpool’s 41.9%, the closest margin between any two sides on matchday eight. A draw is given a 25.5% likelihood.

Everton, however, have won four of their last seven meetings with Liverpool in the WSL (D2 L1), more than they managed in their first 10 Merseyside Derbies in the competition (W3 D3 L4).

But they have struggled at Goodison Park. They have not won a WSL game in four attempts at the iconic stadium (D2 L2), failing to score in three of those games. Their most recent such match came earlier this month, losing 5-0 to Chelsea.

While the Reds are winless in their last three trips across Stanley Park, they are enjoying their longest ever unbeaten run away from home in the WSL, going eight without defeat since losing to Man City in January (W6 D2). Only Chelsea (nine) and City (eight) have won more times on the road in the top flight in 2024 than the Reds (six).

The Reds’ Marie-Therese Hobinger will be the player to watch. She has created more chances from set-pieces than any other player in the WSL this season (10), while each of her seven assists in the competition have come via corners.

Next up…the Merseyside derby #EVELIV

— Liverpool FC Women (@LiverpoolFCW) November 11, 2024

LEICESTER V MAN UTD

One of two games that conclude the weekend’s action takes place in the East Midlands, with Man United, the third team without a loss this term, taking on Leicester.

The Red Devils are, unsurprisingly, favoured by Opta’s data-led simulations and are handed a 66.7% chance of emerging victorious. Leicester are given just a 15.2% chance of winning, with a draw valued at 18.1%.

Though they are unbeaten in the WSL this season, United have drawn their last three league matches. The last team to draw four in a row in the competition was Aston Villa in May 2021 (five in a row).

United have conceded just twice in their opening six league games this season, with only Man City in 2016 (0) and 2019-20 (one) and Arsenal in 2022-23 (one) ever leaking fewer goals at this stage of a campaign. The Red Devils’ opponents have by far the worst conversion rate in the competition this term, however (2.9%).

The Foxes are winless in six previous meetings with United in the WSL (D1 L5), only facing Arsenal (P7 L7) and Villa (P7 D2 L5) more often in the competition without winning.

Elisabeth Terland has scored three goals in her last two WSL appearances against Leicester, with the striker only netting in more games in the competition against Tottenham (four different games).