Women´s Super League predictions: Man City and Arsenal backed for victory

Brighton have been one of the stories of the season so far, and head into matchday seven of the Women’s Super League season in third place.

Yet the Seagulls will face a huge test when they travel to face Arsenal on Friday, in one of two matches taking place that day to kick off the WSL weekend.

League leaders Manchester City are also in action on Friday, taking on Tottenham.

On Sunday, reigning champions Chelsea – fresh from a 5-0 win at Goodison Park – are back on Merseyside to play Liverpool.

Four of the bottom five play each other, with Crystal Palace taking on Everton and West Ham going up against Leicester City, with Manchester United, who drew 1-1 with Arsenal last week, rounding out the weekend against Aston Villa.

Here, we delve into the pre-match facts, and take a look at the Opta supercomputer’s predictions, for each of the fixtures.

ARSENAL V BRIGHTON

Arsenal are unbeaten under interim boss Renee Slegers, and despite Brighton’s fantastic start to the season, the Gunners are predicted to claim the points.

They have a whopping 82.1% chance of victory on Friday, with Brighton’s win probability at just 6.8%. The threat of a draw is 11.2%.

Arsenal have a perfect record against Brighton in the WSL, winning all 12 of their meetings with them in the competition by an aggregate score of 44-2. Only Manchester City have a better 100% record against an opponent in the competition (16/16 v Everton).

Brighton, though, have won four of their six league games this season (D1 L1), just one fewer victory than they managed across the whole of last season (W5 D4 L13). This is the Seagulls’ best start after six matches of a WSL campaign.

Arsenal are winless in their last three home games in the league (D2 L1) – only once have they had a longer run without a win on home soil in the competition (six between May-October 2014). Brighton, though, have never won back-to-back away matches in the competition (they beat Crystal Palace in their last away game).

Nikita Parris has been in fine form for Brighton, and she will go up against her former club. No player has scored more goals in the WSL against their old teams than Parris (nine, level with Ellen White).

Beth Mead could be the player to really stand out for Arsenal. Against no side does she have more combined WSL goals and assists than Brighton (12 – seven goals, five assists).

MANCHESTER CITY V TOTTENHAM

Arsenal are the most likely side to win, according to Opta’s model, this weekend, but league leaders Man City are just behind them.

City came out on top in 81.8% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations ahead of their game against Tottenham, whose win probability is 6.9%.

Spurs’ only win on their four previous trips to face City in the WSL came in September 2021, coming from behind to win 2-1 (L3).

City have won eight of their nine WSL meetings with Tottenham (L1), winning the last five in a row by an aggregate score of 16-1.

Only Chelsea (20) have scored more goals in the 2024-25 WSL than Tottenham (12 – level with Man City), however only Palace (16) have conceded more goals than Spurs (14) this term.

City have gone unbeaten through their opening six games of a WSL season for the fourth time after 2016, 2017-18 and 2018-19, while they have never lost in the competition when playing on a Friday (W3 D1), beating reigning champions Chelsea in their only such game last season (1-0 away).

LIVERPOOL V CHELSEA

Sonia Bampastor has had a brilliant start to life at Chelsea, and the Blues are expected to keep up that excellent form when they face Liverpool.

Chelsea’s win likelihood is 73.1%, while there is a 15.1% probability of a draw, while Liverpool’s chances are rated at 11.8%.

Bompastor could become the first manager to win each of their first four away games in the WSL. Chelsea have already scored 14 goals on the road this season, with the previous most scored under a manager after four away games being 11 by Jonas Eidevall’s Arsenal.

Matt Beard, meanwhile, has won four of his 10 WSL meetings with Chelsea as Liverpool manager (D1 L5) – including his most recent in May 2024 (4-3) – with Nick Cushing (five) and David Parker (five) the only managers to win more games in the competition against the Blues.

Chelsea have won their opening five games of a WSL season for the very first time and could be the sixth team to win their first six matches of a campaign after Arsenal (2018-19, 2021-22, 2022-23) and Man City (2016, 2017-18).

This will be the 23rd WSL meeting between Liverpool and Chelsea with only Arsenal and Chelsea meeting more often in the competition (28 times).

Despite the Blues being favourites for this one, it is worth noting Chelsea won four consecutive WSL away games against Liverpool between September 2015 and March 2019 but are since winless in their last three such trips (D1 L2).

CRYSTAL PALACE V EVERTON

Things are not going well for Everton this season. They are bottom of the pile and without a win to their name.

They visit Palace on Sunday, and the supercomputer is anticipating a tight contest. The hosts’ chances are rated at 37.3%, with Everton’s at 36.3%. The draw is at 26.4%.

Everton’s two points is their joint-worst tally at this stage of a WSL campaign along with 2014, when they were relegated, and 2018-19 (finished 10th).

Everton are, however, unbeaten in their last eight WSL games against newly-promoted opposition (W6 D2), winning each of their last four such away games by an aggregate score of 14-0.

Palace have lost all three of their home games in the WSL without scoring, conceding 11 goals in the process; only three teams have lost each of their first four matches on home soil in the competition: Yeovil Town in 2017 (-9 GD), Aston Villa in 2020 (-11 GD) and Leicester City in 2021 (-8 GD).

WEST HAM V LEICESTER CITY

West Ham are unbeaten in three previous home games against Leicester in the WSL (W2 D1), drawing this fixture 1-1 last season, and the Hammers are expected to end their wait for a win this season when they face the Foxes on Sunday.

Leicester won just 25.6% of the model’s simulations, while West Ham won 48.6%.

West Ham are, however, the team that is most likely to finish bottom of the WSL this term, according to the supercomputer.

The Hammers are winless in their last 15 WSL games (D6 L9) while their two points from six games this term is their worst return at this stage of a top-flight campaign (D2 L4).

Indeed, West Ham have won fewer points (12 – W2 D6 L10) than any other ever-present team in the WSL in 2024, while they have lost each of their last five league games in the month of November, since beating Leicester 1-0 in 2022.

Leicester, though, have won just one of their last 13 away games in the WSL (D6 L6), a 1-0 victory at Everton in January.

MANCHESTER UNITED V ASTON VILLA

Rounding off this round of matches is Man Utd’s home game against Villa.

Marc Skinner’s team, who are still unbeaten, are backed to get the win at 73.4%, with Villa having a slender 11.2% chance.

With just two points from six games, Villa have had their worst start to a WSL campaign (D2 L4) and this is the first time they have gone winless across their opening six matches.

Villa have lost all four of their away meetings with United in the WSL, conceding 15 goals and netting just once in the process, with that sole goal coming in this fixture last season when losing 1-2.

United may be unbeaten, though they have drawn their last two WSL games. The Red Devils could draw three successive league matches for the first time since November 2021.

Their success has been built on solid foundations this season. United have conceded just two goals after five league games, facing fewer than 10 shots in three of those matches.