Women´s Super League Predictions: Man City and Arsenal big favourites on MD3

As we gear up for matchday three in the Women’s Super League, the chasing pack have an opportunity to make ground on Chelsea and Manchester United, who are both unbeaten so far.

The Opta Supercomputer is here to give the inside track on whom the winners and losers may be as we look ahead to each match-up.

Chelsea and United will not be in action due to fixture congestion as a result of the Blues’ Women’s Champions League fixture on Tuesday next week. This will therefore be an early chance for Manchester City, Tottenham, and Arsenal to make inroads.

WSL history could be made this weekend too – if Jordan Nobbs laces up her boots and is selected for Aston Villa in their match away at Brighton, she will break the record for all-time appearances.

If Nobbs is selected by new Villa boss Robert de Pauw, she will reach a staggering 193 appearances in the competition, 13 years and 175 days since she debuted in the WSL for Arsenal against Chelsea in April 2011.

Stephanie Houghton (127) is the only player to have featured in more wins than Nobbs (124) and the Villa midfielder will be confident she can surpass the now-retired City defender this season.

The #BarclaysWSL action taking place this weekend! pic.twitter.com/Arqg06vDF1

— Barclays Women’s Super League (@BarclaysWSL) October 3, 2024

At the bottom of the table, newcomers Crystal Palace will want to banish the memory of their 7-0 drubbing by champions Chelsea and try and get their first points on the board.

Everton, meanwhile, have been struck by misfortune, losing midfielder Aurora Galli and forward Inma Gabarro both to anterior cruciate ligament injuries.

Let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.

BRIGHTON V ASTON VILLA

Kicking off the weekend’s action, Brighton will welcome Aston Villa to the Broadfield Stadium in the only match on Saturday. Dario Vidosic’s side have made an impressive start under the new manager, beating Everton 4-0 in their opening fixture and narrowly losing 1-0 to Man City last time out.

Only City (31) have recorded more open play sequences of 10+ passes in the WSL this season than Brighton (28), who in their opening home match recorded their best-ever pass accuracy in a league match (87.8%) and their second-most passes ever in a game in the competition (550).

However, despite Brighton’s early good form, the Opta supercomputer has them at only 36.1% to get the home win and 26.2% for the draw. Villa have won just one of their last eight WSL matches (D3 L4), though the exception was a 1-0 away win at Brighton on the penultimate matchday of last season. The Opta Supercomputer is edging them ahead of the hosts to get the win, at 37.8%.

De Pauw (D1 L1) will be looking to avoid becoming the second Villa manager to go winless across their first three games in the WSL after Gemma Davies (L3), who did so back in October 2020. Two of the Villans’ previous three managers in the competition picked up their first away win at Brighton, though.

MANCHESTER CITY V WEST HAM

West Ham have had a difficult start to their campaign, only picking up one point so far, though that did come in dramatic fashion when they fought back to draw with Liverpool. They travel to the Joie Stadium to face a City team aiming to make it two wins from two home games.

City are looking to go unbeaten across their opening three games of a WSL campaign for the eighth time (including the 2017 Spring Series) – prior to this season, only Chelsea (nine) and Arsenal (eight) had done so more times in the competition than the Citizens (seven).

Opta’s model predicts City to get the job done, giving them a huge 87.3% chance of victory. City have won 10 of their 11 WSL meetings with West Ham and half of those victories have come with them scoring at least four goals.

The Opta model is damming of the Hammers’ chances of getting the win, at 4.5%, and gives more chance of a draw, at 8.2%. West Ham are winless in their last six away games in the WSL (D1 L5) and could equal their longest-ever run without victory on the road in the competition.

Both Khadija Shaw and Vivianne Miedema have opened up their accounts for the season and West Ham should be wary of the duo.

Shaw has scored 13 goals in her 11 WSL appearances so far in 2024, currently the best goals per game rate (1.18) by a player in a single calendar year in the competition’s history (minimum three appearances).

ARSENAL V EVERTON

Arsenal will be aiming to avoid defeat in their opening three games of a WSL campaign for the sixth time in the last seven seasons, though they did fail to do so last season (W1 D1 L1).

Everton will travel south with little hope of victory, and they are only given a 7% chance compared to Arsenal’s 81.5%; at 11.4%, a draw also seems unlikely.

The Toffees could break an unwanted record this weekend. Having lost both of their league games this season, should they suffer another defeat, then they will become the first team in WSL history to lose 100 games.

The Gunners started the season as expected in a tight exchange with Man City on the opening day and then a slender away win at Leicester City.

Jonas Eidevall has won 49 of his 68 matches in the WSL (D9 L10) and victory against Everton this weekend would make him the second-quickest manager to reach 50 wins (69 games), behind only his predecessor Joe Montemurro (66 games).

One to watch in this match will be Frida Maanum, who has scored the opening goal in both of Arsenal’s WSL games this season. She could become the first player to put the Gunners 1-0 up in three consecutive matches in the competition.

TOTTENHAM V LIVERPOOL

Tottenham have enjoyed a strong start to the season and sit third heading into the weekend. They welcome Liverpool to Brisbane Road – Matt Beard’s side have yet to register a win so far.

The Supercomputer calculates Spurs will continue their good form and snatch the win (40.3%) as opposed to a 33% chance of victory for the Reds, though a draw is also a likely outcome.

Building on their form from last season, Spurs have scored a wealth of goals in the opening weeks. Only Chelsea (seven) have had more different goalscorers this season than Tottenham, with each of Spurs’ six league goals coming via a different player.

This will not be a walk in the park, though. Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six WSL games, last going longer without defeat in the league in September 2016 (eight). Only Man City (nine) are currently on a longer unbeaten run away from home than the Reds (six – W4 D2).

LEICESTER CITY V CRYSTAL PALACE

Amandine Miquel has had a mixed start to her tenure as Leicester boss. She is the Foxes’ fifth manager in the WSL, but she could be the fourth to fail to win their first three games in charge, with Lydia Bedford in 2021-22 the only one to avoid that fate.

Opta’s model is backing Miquel to change the record, though, with a home win the result in 47.6% of the supercomputer’s simulations, while the likelihood of a draw is 26.1% and Palace are given a 26.3% chance.

Newly promoted Palace could be the fifth team to lose each of their first three games in the WSL but only the second to lose their first three matches in the competition without scoring a single goal, after Brighton in 2018-19.

Leicester, meanwhile, have won all four of their previous WSL games against newly promoted opposition, with Man Utd (10/10) the only other team to have a 100% record against such teams.

Leicester forward Jutta Rantala was directly involved in five goals in two appearances against newly promoted opposition last season, scoring twice and assisting once away to Bristol City in October and scoring and assisting at home to the Robins in February. She will fancy her chances against a Palace side that conceded seven goals last time out.