Women´s Super League predictions: Man Utd and Chelsea to stay perfect, winning start for Slegers?

Manchester City are the team leading the way in the Women’s Super League standings with 10 points from four games, ahead of Sunday’s home clash with Aston Villa.

However, it is Chelsea and Manchester United – who saw their scheduled matchday three meeting postponed – who boast the only two perfect records in the division.

Both sides have recorded three wins from as many games ahead of potentially testing fixtures this weekend.

While Marc Skinner’s United go to Brighton, who have taken nine points from four matches in a fine start, Chelsea host Tottenham in a big London derby.

Elsewhere, Renee Slegers takes charge of Arsenal for the first time in the WSL following the exit of Jonas Eidevall, with a trip to West Ham marking her first league assignment following Wednesday’s 4-1 Women’s Champions League victory over Valerenga.

But which way will those games – and the three other contests taking place on matchday five – go? We turned to the Opta supercomputer to get its latest set of WSL predictions.

The #BarclaysWSL action coming up this weekend! pic.twitter.com/LceDWXcICk

— Barclays Women’s Super League (@BarclaysWSL) October 15, 2024

BRIGHTON V MANCHESTER UNITED

The weekend’s action begins at the Amex Stadium on Saturday, with both Brighton and United having a chance to go top of the table ahead of Sunday’s matches.

Dario Vidosic’s team beat Crystal Palace 1-0 last time out, and their return of nine points from four matches is the best start Brighton have ever made to a WSL season. In 2023-24, they needed 11 games to reach the same tally.

They are, however, winless in their last six WSL meetings with United, drawing one and losing five since a 1-0 home triumph in April 2021. Skinner’s side are yet to concede this season, and there has only previously been five instances of a team starting a WSL campaign with four straight wins without shipping a goal – one was United in 2022-23.

They are given a 63.4% chance of victory on the south coast, with Brighton only assigned a 17.1% win probability and a 19.5% likelihood of earning a draw.

MANCHESTER CITY V ASTON VILLA

City enter the weekend top of the tree, winning three straight since playing out a 2-2 draw with fellow title hopefuls Arsenal on matchday one.

In a run stretching back to November 19, 2023, City have won 18 of their last 20 matches in the WSL – in this time, they have won 10 more points than any other side (55).

Khadija Shaw’s double handed them a 2-1 victory over Liverpool at Anfield on their last league outing, taking her to 15 goals in 13 WSL matches in 2024, seven more than any other player and more than two ever-present clubs (Leicester City with 12 and West Ham with 14) have managed.

City are overwhelming favourites, winning 84% of the supercomputer’s pre-match simulations, while Villa have just a 5.9% chance of earning their first win of the season, having started with two draws and two defeats. A draw is given a 10.1% likelihood.

LIVERPOOL V CRYSTAL PALACE

Liverpool’s own unbeaten start was halted by City last time out, but they are favourites to get back on track against a Palace team with one win and three defeats to their name.

The Reds’ win probability is a hefty 63.3%, with Palace given a 17.2% chance and 19.5% of the match simulations finishing all square.

Liverpool should be wary, however, as they won 10 straight games against newly promoted opposition in the WSL between 2016 and 2018 but have since only won two of six matches against such opponents (one draw, three losses).

Palace, meanwhile, earned their first WSL win at Leicester last time out on the road. The only two promoted teams to win as many as two of their first three away WSL matches are Tottenham in 2019 and Villa in 2020.

WEST HAM V ARSENAL

The biggest story to emerge from the WSL this week came from north London, as Arsenal parted company with Eidevall after taking just five points from four WSL matches.

Only once have the Gunners had fewer points through their first four matches of a WSL season, picking up a solitary point from their first four outings in 2014. They did, though, beat Valerenga in midweek for a winning start under interim boss Slegers.

Arsenal have won nine of their 11 games against West Ham in the WSL, but only one of the last three (one draw, one loss). However, the supercomputer still gives them a whopping 73.3% chance of travelling back across the capital three points better off.

West Ham, meanwhile, are on the longest current winless run in the WSL (13 games – six draws, seven defeats), since they beat Arsenal 2-1 back in February. The Hammers have not scored more than once in a single match in that run.

They are given an 11.7% chance of adding to the Gunners’ woes with another memorable victory, and a 15% chance of holding their opponents to a draw.

LEICESTER CITY V EVERTON

Along with West Ham and Villa, Leicester and Everton are the remaining two sides still waiting on their first victory of the WSL season. Will either team change that on Sunday?

The supercomputer makes this fixture the toughest to call on matchday five, with Leicester given a 35.2% chance of victory to Everton’s 38.8%. The draw threat is at 26%.

The Foxes will have to overcome their goalscoring woes to have any chance of a result, though. Since hammering Bristol City 5-2 in February, Leicester have scored just six goals in 12 WSL matches, failing to net in each of their last three matches.

Everton, meanwhile, have failed to score with any of their 37 shots in the WSL this season – their one goal came via an own goal from West Ham’s Camila Saez. Neutrals might be best advised not to expect a thriller.

CHELSEA V TOTTENHAM

The weekend’s action is rounded off at Kingsmeadow, as Sonia Bompastor looks to continue her perfect start to life in the Chelsea dugout against Tottenham.

Bompastor is looking to become only the third manager to win her first four WSL matches in charge, along with David Parker (with Birmingham City in 2011) and Eidevall (with Arsenal in 2021).

Including stoppage time, Chelsea have spent 73.7% of their time on the field in winning positions in the WSL this season, the second-highest percentage behind United (75.8%). However, the Blues have faced more shots than they’ve attempted (30 vs 29) when leading, whereas last season they had 137 more shots than their opponents when winning.

Tottenham may not be equipped to take advantage, though. They have shipped the most goals in the WSL since matchday two (eight) after keeping a clean sheet against Crystal Palace on the opening day.

They are given a measly 5.4% chance of causing an upset, and a 9.5% chance of earning a draw. Chelsea’s 85.1% win probability is the highest of any team this weekend.