Women´s Super League predictions: Skinner to win 100th Man Utd game, Chelsea to stay perfect

With the first international break of the campaign now in the rearview mirror, all eyes are back on the Women’s Super League for matchday six.

Manchester City beat Aston Villa to ensure they stayed top of the pile, but Chelsea, the only side to win all of their games this season, are hot on their heels at the summit.

Manchester United’s winning start was halted by Brighton, though they are still unbeaten ahead of taking on Arsenal in what will be Marc Skinner’s 100th game in charge.

There is a London derby in the offing, with Spurs taking on West Ham, while there are also important fixtures for sides at the wrong end of the table, with Everton and Aston Villa, along with the Hammers, searching for their first win of the campaign.

But which of those sides will emerge victorious on matchday six? We turned to the Opta supercomputer to get its latest set of WSL predictions.

Here’s how the #BarclaysWSL table looks heading into game week six! pic.twitter.com/kuF0D18exc

— Barclays Women’s Super League (@BarclaysWSL) October 30, 2024

MANCHESTER UNITED V ARSENAL

The weekend’s action kicks off with a blockbuster encounter at the Leigh Sports Village Stadium, with Renee Slegers hoping to maintain her excellent start as the Gunners’ interim boss.

Slegers’ first WSL match in charge ended in a 2-0 triumph over West Ham. Arsenal have now won their last three away games in the division and could win four in a row on the road in the league for the first time since December 2022 (eight).

But they face a stern test against the Red Devils, who have only lost one of their last four home games against the Gunners in the WSL (W2 D1), and following 3-0 wins over West Ham and Tottenham, are looking to win their opening three home games of a WSL season for the first time.

This will be Skinner’s 100th game in charge of United in all competitions – his win rate (62.6%) with the club is by far his best with a team across his managerial career (47% at Birmingham City, 21% at Orlando Pride).

Opta’s model is forecasting a tight encounter. United are handed a 35.1% win probability of emerging victorious, compared to Arsenal’s 38.9%, while a draw is given a 26% chance of happening.

An unmissable battle in the WSL #MUWomen pic.twitter.com/vhNMhVkbak

— Manchester United Women (@ManUtdWomen) October 30, 2024

BRIGHTON V LEICESTER CITY

Brighton enter the weekend just outside the top three on goal difference following their 1-1 draw with United before the international break, and are on a three-game unbeaten run.

The Seagulls are unbeaten at home in the league this season (W2 D1) and could go four home games in a row without defeat in the WSL for the very first time.

However, they have struggled against Leicester on home soil in recent years.

Leicester are unbeaten on their last two trips to Brighton in the WSL (W1 D1), and the Foxes will be full of confidence after ending a run of 12 league games without a victory when they beat Everton last time out.

Brighton’s win probability is a hefty 53.1%, with Leicester given a 22.9% chance and 24% of the match simulations finishing all square.

CRYSTAL PALACE V MANCHESTER CITY

WSL leaders Man City make the trip to Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace, who have lost their first two home games in the WSL by an aggregate score of 0-8 upon their return to the top-flight.

Gareth Taylor’s team will become the fourth side to play 200 games in the WSL after Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton – with their 142 wins after 199 matches are already the most by a team across their first 200 games in the competition.

City have also done well against promoted teams. They have won 23 of their 24 games in the division against such opponents, netting 88 goals and conceding just nine times. The only exception was a 2-1 defeat to Liverpool in May 2023.

Lauren Hemp will also be looking to continue her fine form. She has now both scored and assisted in 16 different WSL games, with Vivianne Miedema (20) the only player to do so more often in the competition

City are overwhelming favourites, winning 78.3% of the supercomputer’s pre-match simulations, while Palace have just a 9.4% chance of earning their second win of the season. A draw is only 10.1% likely.

@lauren__hemp is up for the @BarclaysWSL Player of the Month

Vote now

— Manchester City (@ManCity) October 25, 2024

TOTTENHAM V WEST HAM

Tottenham, meanwhile, will be hoping to bounce back from their 5-2 defeat to Chelsea when they take on West Ham, who find themselves rooted to the bottom of the table after five games.

Spurs have lost three consecutive league matches for the first time under manager Robert Vilahamn, only losing more times across their opening five games in a WSL season in 2020-21 (four), but have won three of their last four home London derbies in the WSL (L1) after winning just one of their first 11 in the competition (D3 L7).

The Hammers have won only one of their five away meetings with Tottenham in the WSL (D2 L2) and are winless in their last 14 league games (D6 L8), with only six teams ever going longer without victory in the competition – it is the longest ever unwanted streak by a London club in the competition.

They are given just a 21.7% chance of earning a first win of the season with a draw assigned at 23.1%, while Tottenham are given a 55.2% win probability.

ASTON VILLA V LIVERPOOL

Aston Villa welcome Liverpool to Villa Park, with both sides hoping to ignite their seasons with a victory after disappointing draws against Leicester and Crystal Palace respectively last time out.

The supercomputer makes this fixture the toughest to call on matchday six, with Villa given a 35.4% chance of victory to Liverpool’s 38.6%. The draw threat is at 26%.

Villa won their first ever WSL meeting with Liverpool 1-0 in November 2022 but are winless in their three games against the Reds since (D1 L2).

They have also failed to win their opening five league games for the second season in a row, the sixth team to do so in back-to-back campaigns in the WSL.

Liverpool completed a league double over Villa last season and have also enjoyed games away from Merseyside. They are unbeaten in their last seven away games in the WSL (W5 D2), having never before gone eight in a row on the road in the competition without suffering a defeat.

EVERTON V CHELSEA

The weekend concludes at Goodison Park, where Chelsea will be looking to make it five WSL wins from five under new boss Sonia Bompastor.

The former Lyon coach is aiming to be the third manager to win their first five games in the WSL after David Parker and Jonas Eidevall (both of whom beat Everton in their fifth game). The Frenchwoman has also won 19 of her last 20 away league games as a manager (L1).

And she has reason to be confident of achieving that feat. Chelsea have won each of their last nine WSL games against the Toffees, only ever going on a longer winning streak in the competition against West Ham and Tottenham (current streaks of 10 wins).

Everton are also winless in their 19 previous WSL games against the reigning champions (D3 L16), failing to score in 10 of the last 12, while also failing to record a victory in their last three league matches at Goodison Park.

They are given a measly 9% chance of halting the Blues’ winning run, and an 11.6% chance of holding their opponents to a draw. Chelsea, meanwhile, are given a win probability of 79.4%, the highest of any team on matchday six.

Up next: A trip to Merseyside. pic.twitter.com/28GwA1Yrbi

— Chelsea FC Women (@ChelseaFCW) October 30, 2024